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Yes we don't want to get too cold suppression depression happens then. We also don't want the shreddar pattern either like we had last year. An interesting video from Met DT about December.

The now again closed off topic section of AMWX is a prime example. Some of the worst behavior I've witnessed took place over there. I literally cringed at some of the posts I'd seen.

The ultimate model "inverse can kick" period of all time was JFM 2014. It was uncanny

While understandably we are all focused on temps, I like that the weeklies are keeping us AN to normal with precip thru December. At least in the Mid Atlantic, dry is always a concern in Niñas, especially Decembers. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-tp?base_time=202511130000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202511240000

Typical

Question was there a stratospheric warming event lately? Finding it interesting that interior Florida was having low temperatures Tuesday running 37-41 across south Central Florida and highs barely cracking 60f on November 12th at the same time it wasn't all that much colder / warmer here. Almost looked came across as cold air coming from aloft to the surface and then quickly leaving obviously stage right to the east and northeast.

Who knows , maybe he will be right. I mean he isnt the only one talking about a cold and active winter.

My shots from 11/11/2025 in Raleigh, NC: And then the lousy aerial from 11/12:

As things draw closer, even if the cold becomes less impressive, the following are plausible headlines from that account: “Get Ready: The Sudden Cold Blast That Will Shock Your Forecast!” “Temperatures Are About to Crash!” "The Temperature Plunge You Need to See to Believe.” As noted previously, social media is a veritable "Wild West" of meteorology information. There is no accountability. Clicks remain the single metric of value. Clickbait accounts are little more than the 21st century version of the 20th century's hawkers and hustlers. And, because these accounts deploy hyperbole to build enormous followings, it's no surprise that public perceptions of meteorology are distorted by the sensationalism.

The Euro Weeklies today use the first week as a transition week(as opposed to full blown cold) and repay us with cold the rest of the month. I am seeing a bit of a trend to dump cold in the west and then it spreads eastward. We have seen this trend on modeling(and it be correct) more times than I can count during the past decade. The 12z GEPS absolutely slams the cold into the West and it quickly spreads eastward. With all the bouncing around today, this may be a very wicked shot o cold air - lots of bouncing around with very cold air. It is worth noting that the Canadian model suite will often "see" the extreme of cold air first. While the Euro is sidestepping a bit, the GEFS and Canadian ensembles at 12z are quite cool. Remember it is shoulder season and possibly VERY cold air in the mix for December....so no surprise today.

Below are the Top 50 Snowstorms in Chester and SE Berks County History. Of note the 1960's had 8 of the Top 50 storms followed by the 2010's with 6 of our largest snowstorms. For folks that think we don't get snowstorms like the old days....we only need to go back to our last full decade! Of note so far here in the 2020's we have had only 1 storm in the Top 50 that one being the February 2021 storm that left 16.6" at East Nantmeal and 14.0" at Spring City.

Below are the Top 50 Snowstorms in Chester and SE Berks County History. Of note the 1960's had 8 of the Top 50 storms followed by the 2010's with 6 of our largest snowstorms. For folks that think we don't get snowstorms like the old days....we only need to go back to our last full decade! Of note so far here in the 2020's we have had only 1 storm in the Top 50 that one being the February 2021 storm that left 16.6" at East Nantmeal and 14.0" at Spring City.

How fun was that !!! Yee Foc’ing haw!

out of the 6 auroral events i've caught, this was probably 2nd (maybe 1st?) compared to october 10th of last year. Either way, really awesome experience, and i'm glad the clouds cooperated more than Tuesday night.

Our current winter storm began affecting the area yesterday, and it’s been hitting us with a decent stream of moisture in the form of snow and some rain/snow in the lower elevations. We picked up less than an inch of additional snow overnight at our site in the Winooski Valley, and the total precipitation Id recorded from the event was less than ¼” as of this morning’s CoCoRaHS submission. So, I had no idea that we’d been clobbered with snow in the higher elevations until I saw PF’s post of the accumulation at the Stowe snow cam. I immediately checked the Bolton Valley Base Area Webcam, and although I couldn’t get a good sense for how much snow had fallen there, the scene was solidly white, and in general if Stowe has done well with snowfall, then Bolton Valley has seen something similar. Snow cover was getting patchy this morning in many of the lower valleys, with marginal temperatures and a wet snow/rain mix, and that’s the way things stood at the base of the Bolton Valley Access Road when I headed up. Snow depths really started to pick up above 1,000’ though, and I found 6-9” of snow at the Timberline Base at 1,500’. Up in the Village at 2,000’, snow depths were in the 10-14” range, and there was steady moderate to heavy snowfall. I was able to tour up to the Wilderness Summit at ~3,150’, where I measured total snow depths in the 15-24” range. That’s not all from this current system of course, but with the existing snowpack below and this fresh snow on top, it’s set up some very nice skiing. Steep terrain is certainly in play with the amount of snow out there right now, and Bolton Outlaw was in really good shape. I was on mid-fats, since I wasn’t sure of how much snow there was going to be, but if I’d known just how much was out there, and how good the coverage was in general, I would have gone with fatter skis. At least on piste as of this morning, fats were the way to go. The powder out there isn’t quite as dry as what fell from the November 5th storm, but the quality is quite good, and it has a lot of substance to it. With underlying base in place and this new medium to high density snow on top of it, there is absolutely some great coverage out there. Below is the total snow depth profile I observed this morning for various elevations in the Bolton Valley area. As usual, it’s getting harder to probe the full depth of the snow in the higher elevations where the snowpack is becoming more consolidated. 340’: T-2”” 500’: 1-2” 1,000’: 2-4” 1,500’: 6-9” 2,000’: 10-14” 2,500’: 12-15” 3,000’: 15-24” It should be interesting to see where the snowpack depth comes in with the next update from the Mt. Mansfield Stake. This system looks like it should continue to deliver snow right through the end of the week, with 8-14” of additional snow shown in the forecasts. And, temperatures are expected to cool down a bit and bring snow levels back down to the lower valleys, so if the snow density drops it could set up some excellent right-side-up powder conditions.

Sorry for delay... It snows at lot there...1860 foot elevation at foot of Whiteface- not like the Green Mountain Spine- but just keeps chugging along. Last year was a good year for duration- basically no rain from early Dec- Mar. Was damn deep in the woods!

Fun?

Here it’s like 2 miles and you’re out of it. Last night’s and today’s snows were above 1,100 feet mainly. Wetter 2-3” depth in town compared to like 6-8” fully caked at 1500ft.

Same here. But the difference between here and Whitefield is pretty amazing. My backyard above, and 10 miles away in Whitefield below.

Ironically we currently have a rain/snow shower. 37.6°

FWIW, here’s what the SPV “expert” thinks of what may or may not happen:

Just keeps snowing.

Replaced by Bam Weather. Old habits die hard.