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Noticed a pretty significant increase in tree color with the tree out front and neighbors yard from a few days ago.

I think the impacts at some of the beaches will be pretty bad-days of onshore flow pushing water in before the main event and full moon Saturday to boot.

Decided October feel out there this morning. Overnight low of 44 with a gusty NE wind. Seems Summer has fallen off the cliff.

That poor kid last year that had the tree kill him while on the physical playground at school outside Boston during a windy day… that stuff is why.

So surprised this is not even getting mentioned in the TWO. Wonder what the internal reasoning is?

You should break down the areas that will get a few inches - the areas that will get a few showers only and the areas that will get more than a few inches Some areas to the east will have trees falling with significant flooding this is not a uniform event there will be a wide range of outcomes.

Yeah, I've been thinking all week how much "fun" this would be to track if it were winter. Buckle up! 54F/DP 46F

Lawsuits…that’s why. God forbid if a bus load of kids has a tree branch fall on the bus. So that’s why. Whatever. Back to the potential storm.

I'm sure if it were a weekday-we'd have school closures for wind and rain. in NEW ENGLAND nonetheless

It's going to be a Nor'Easter. We'll get a few inches of rain we don't need right now. Trees will fall. Roads will flood. We'll live! Then, next week, we'll be in the 70s. I'm semi-looking forward to that before it starts getting to sweater weather.

torch ! 54/47 with an unusually stiff breeze from the northeast

Not meaning to digress the thread but all of humanity appears to be swooning over and guided by the 'grand presentation' these days. It's like we're all participating unwittingly in a dystopian cinema - if not delusion. It's a movie about the evolutionary scaled, socio-technological experiment we're sending our own species through.

IMO, the probability of a more significant impact in the NYC area has increased overnight. The uncertainty is lessening.

If they name it the next name is Gonzalo

It is actually insane the amount of model spread we have 48 hours out. Euro/euro AI continues to give most of the area a legit northeaster, GFS/CMC continue to be a glancing blow. ICON/`NAM have moved in the EURO camp. The RGEM is in the GFS/CMC camp. If this was snow, people would be losing their minds lol

How soft has society become you ask???...so soft that some girls volleyball matches scheduled for Saturday have been postponed. .last time I checked volleyball is played INDOORS..

Down to 46 for a low. Great way to start autumn.

Agree. And the Euro ... described below. As far as the GFS ...the difference seems to be that it doesn't include a tropical source. It is more purely cooler thermodynamic/baroclinic, and as such a weaker total cyclonic recovery takes place when this ...weirdness closes off. In and of itself I suspect it is too strong ? Not certain on that; just a-priori on modeling tending to bias on the strong side with everything at this range ...only to Charlie Brown the top 10, 20 ...30% off results at go time... I think there's wiggle room in this scenario as far as amplitude results. The Euro on the other hand, heh. It pretty clearly indicates what it "thinks" is a kind of 'zygote' tropical entity straddling or just barotropic sidled to the frontalysis boundary, which it is extending between the Carolinas and mid way to Bermuda over these next 48 hours. WPC currently analyzes a stationary boundary with low on it, however. Still, it first appears more tropical in the phase space nearing 988 mb as it moves W toward the VA Capes lat (off shore).. Then drifts NNE toward the Benchmark, losing those characteristics in a less hospitable environment, before undergoing some sort of delayed baroclinic inject, it then re-deepens to 984 or so as it retrogrades back W along or S of LI.. Helluva sell for meticulous skill - I find that overall evolution either extraordinary, or ... unlikely to be so well handled and accurate by the Euro so precisely. We'll see. It's interesting... All of it I suspect is more open to uncertainty than many are likely aware. Just higher than normal for this range.

Then the NHC should be adding it to its TWOs since those address the chance for both T and ST development. Adding it to its TWOs has been suggested by both JB and @vortex95

Page hits...give it a few more hours and they will have Jim Cantore interviewing Noah with the ark in the background...

Yes sir…you’ve really been swamped down that way…and we’ve been very soaked up this way too(although not as bad as your area), so this rain coming if it gets excessive will cause problems. As you said…ground is saturated here too.

This will have a subtropical core. So a hybrid system. For coordination and awareness purposes this should probably get a name like they sometimes do with subtropical storms.

6z Euro definitely an issue with winds, particularly for the coast

Had another frosty car and lawn this morning.