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Start time guesstimate anyone ? 8 am ?????? and when does she get cranking is it in the afternoon or at night ?

06z :

Would have been nice if guidance converged, I still like my earlier post of Greenwood, DE to the Atlantic Coast. I have a hard time believing the GFS.

Why does it seem all the major mets hug the EURO??

I don’t know. Think we’re in a good spot to catch some ML goodies as it stands.

Monday morning is the height of the storm. Could be near impassable roads. Wouldn’t be surprised if they issue a state of emergency and keep nonessential workers home

Everyone will be rating this an A+ winter in 48 hours

And this coming Wednesday

Didn't see it posted, but 6z Eps improved over 0z.

Would be. I think the later capture is still being ironed out and if keeps ticking NE today, that should help distribute precip more north. .

I wonder if this storm develops an eye like feature like the real biggies did

Mt Holly covered its bases well here. 8-16 forecast, takes care of the Euro's lower tier and touch bases of GFS/NAM.

I just need 7” more to hit 40” on the year.

What are ratios looking like with this one? Do the strong winds lead to mangled flakes and lower ratios?

yeah, seems like the cut backs are beginning

In case anyone was wondering here’s next weekend

Going to be a fun day of model analyzing Probably put together a map/discussion after 12z.

2/21 06z Summary Total QPF NYC / Total 10:1 Snow NYC SREF: 1.8 / 16.9 NAM: 2.3 / 22.5 RGEM: 1.5 / 14.7 ICON: 1.4 / 12.9 GFS: 2.3 / 22 GFS AI AIFS: 1.6 / 15.8 UKMET: 1.0 / 10.4 GEFS: 1.8 / 18.4 EURO: .09 / 10.1 EURO AI AIFS: 1.1 / 11.1

6.5”

Euro is still playing catch - up I think the NWS is ignoring it now - but some private METS which will remain nameless are still considering it

Agree. I’m skeptical but only because of how notorious the Miller B types are around here. A west shift would help. Banter-y; my sister is sitting comfortably under a blizzard warning in NJ. Meh.

I agree with Ray on that. They could issue a SOE here in Mass. but it is pretty meaningless. They just want folks off the road.

In a different thread.

When this one is over.

On February 20, 2026, the PNA was -1.475. The PNA is forecast to remain negative through the remainder of February. During the second half of February and afterward, most of the big I-95 Area snowstorms occur with a negative PNA on account of shortening wave lengths. A major to potentially historic blizzard is possible Sunday into Monday. With 10.0" or more snow, Winter 2025-2026 would be on track to become just the third winter on record in New York City to record two 10" or greater snowstorms, a seasonal mean temperature of 32.0° or below and 30.0" or more seasonal snowfall. Winter records go way back to 1869-1870.