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wow that 18z gfs found every way to f nearly everyone out of any snow (very sigificant/impressive totals) for two weeks. I doubt it's real, but funny

I know, I’m just messing with you.

The talk about the trough being flat and displaced eastward got me to thinking - I know, dangerous! But that displaces western ridge(which leads to a very cold NE) will sometimes retrograde. If it does so slowly enough, we can hit the sweet spot at 500 OR if a system will cut one time. Any type of cutter right now is going to send very cold air south.

lfg!

Hey last thread I made turned out pretty well!

34 here. .

just looked out and lightly snowing.. fresh dusting

Totally got the shaft, man. I would drive home and be amazed. Now, Knoxville wasn't half bad. I remember driving around behind West Town Mall in my front-wheel-drive w/ everything covered in snow. Knox Co had to develop a new snow day, make-up plan after that winter. That extra 30 minutes kids go each day....started that year. But what TRI got was insane. I would see the snow around Jearoldstown Rd on my way up 81, and the parking lots were just stacked with snow piles. After the second storm, it was wild. We will see another winter like that. I can't wait to track it. 14-15 was good though. So, I kind of feel like I got my money back with that winter.

Yes, growing up these were so common. Herb Clarke, Dave Roberts, dare I show my age....Jim O Brien. "A disturbance will drop down into the Plains and spin up a bad guy off the Carolina Coast. Snow and mixing down the shore but we are looking at 2-4" right around the city with higher totals just to the North and West with bigger amounts up into the Lehigh Valley"

I'm sure you're right, I don't remember exactly. But it's also true that for Farmingdale, NY there's been at least one 54+ day - a super mild, holiday-spirit crushing day - in the week leading up to Christmas every year for the last 14 years, including last year, when it was 58. The average of the highest temperature reached in the week leading up to Christmas Day since 2011 is 58.64. The median is 58.5. Every year I hope it won't happen, but that hasn't seemed to help.

Cold Medina?

Tomorrow morning ITT

Saw something drop in the sky while walking the dog a few minutes ago. Figure it was an asteroid or meteorite or something cool… is there a website that actively tracks this sort of thing?

Hey, hey you're not allowed to do that here...they just reprimanded me, lol

This. I don't know why it changed--it's not just one storm but we're talking about at least 5-6 since 2018-19 where this has happened. Calling it bad luck I find unsatisfactory because of what my eyes see on radar during each storm I'm seeing the exact same wall at Central MD in the exact same spot for all of those events. How do you see that and not suspect it's something else? At least the Nina explanation makes a little more sense...but Jan 2019 was a Nino and it still happened, lol

27.2° -SN Fresh coating out there

the depth and scope of wx hype

I haven’t got milk or bread yet. This is too early in the season but I’ll take it.

Funky looking band going over on radar. Smells like snow. Nothing falling though

Winter is 2 weeks away. Literally the whole winter is still in front of us. Looks promising to me.

Happy for you…but man this is gonna be painful north of EZF. Oof. Wake me when it’s over. Get me my sedative!

It has been a great GREAT beginning to winter 2025-2026. especially coastal SNE, should never expect any significant snow prior to Christmas. But that goes for like 1/2 of SNE in general. The expectations are wild though

I hope you get to experience a 95-96 up that way @Carvers Gap. If I remember you said you were in Knoxville in 95-96? That is my favorite winter hands down ( I was in Kingsport). We got a 4-6" around this time in Dec '95, I feel like it was a clipper that over performed. It was an overnight deal.

18z models

-SN, 27/19F