All Activity

Update on EW from Lazza at S2k: Update on EW vs 2 days ago: slightly quieter 2nd 1/2 but still much more active 2nd half of Sep vs 1st half:1-7: 4.5 (0.3)8-14: 8 (0.5)15-21: 14 (0.9)22-28: 18.5 (1.3)

Curious is the pattern is trying to tell us something for the upcoming Winter? When was the last time ended Summer this cool? Obviously more questions than answers but getting a little excited with how things are setting up.

Multiple rounds of showers and squalls on the cyclonic flow too. Cold season weather pattern.

Let's hope that warm pool migrates east toward Alaska like JD posted about a while ago.

But it’s not fall. This is cooler than most of Sept will be

Same to you !

At 3 PM, 36F, 39G47, vis. zero. Hope no climbers (also drivers and Cog passengers) were expecting a view. Just had a quick shower with some gusts into the 20s and temp dropped into the 50s. Had showers at midnight and 8 AM also, probably under 0.2" in total though the MTD is about 1.3".

40s for the Freak.

Things should begin to change soon out West.

I’m not saying it’ll be upper 60s to low 70s all September, but at BDL climo is 81/59 today and 77/55 two weeks from now. Solidly above in a backsliding climo isn’t really deep summer as we progress through September.

Congrats on a sunny august day with a high in the 60s

I hope that is true. It's slightly encouraging to see above normal sea surface temps along the Inside Passage.

If I could get a job in Lancaster I would.

But it actually isn’t . Pattern reversal coming just when you don’t want it

I don’t know how anyone can hate this unless you’re at the beach. Fall is here. It is what it is.

ACATT creaming jeans in late Aug. wait till this is the coolest wx until November . Once trough leaves . Endless summer fall hits . They’re gonna wish this didn’t happen when they actually want it

12z GFS has us locked in this pattern for the entirety of the 16 day run.

This works for October.

What intensifies? did Milton form that way? I have a bad feeling about otrebmuh

Much lower summer pressures over the Arctic since 2012 halted the rate of historic sea ice decline from 2007-2012 with the record Arctic dipole pattern those years. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL053268 Thus we can say that a six year run of near one standard deviation negative excursions (2007–2012) is unique in the 63 year record. To further test the significance of the 2007–2012 AD patterns we randomly generated 10,000 time series, each with 63 points to match the observed time series and with a normal distribution without autocorrelation. For this simple calculation, the chance for having five consecutive values with a negative AD of magnitude greater than 1.0 standard deviation units in a sample size of 63 is rare, less than 1 in a 1000.

A harbinger of the upcoming winter.

74/45 at 2:00 PM 8/30/25.......... is this the Matrix ?

Working outside and its a joy! The breeze and cool air is Zen-like .

We are spoiled as hell to have essentially skipped the dog days entirely. It’s false fall but with each passing day, the heat won’t have that same stiffness to it. College football on the back porch tonight. Enjoy!

12Z models: UKMET/GFS/Icon: TD but it then dissipates pretty quickly CMC: just weak low Euro: TD that recurves just offshore NC 9/12: JMA: nada