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Worth it though

Got the 1st substorm on camera then my tripod falling and breaking my lens combined with an 8am class made me retreat before round two.

And now we got potential record highs coming this weekend! lol

Happy birthday! Hope all is well with you and your family.

Happy birthday bro. Hope you had a great day.

Was hoping to see snow on my birthday. Sadly only virga this morning on radar.

This is turning into a nice wave 1 displacement event as we go into the end of the month. Shame we lose the -NAO signal and it is not allowed to grow with depth. Here is the 50mb Euro 240hr forecast for the SPV we did not have the classic approach of a Scandinavian high retrograding into the NAO domain we typically see that helps enhance a wave 2 response so the -NAO is rather shallow in the atmosphere. Now the question becomes then after this relaxation period in the troposphere do we see a re-emergence of the -NAO as aloft ridging(through the strat) gets pushed over into the NAO domain and we somehow get a connection through the layers? This has been a theme of these events (this one still looks rather mild) over the last 5 or so years. This is not looking like a significant warming event as of now. It is pretty rare to see something major this early I would look closer to the new year and there after for potential if we can maintain a weakened SPV. Sorry they loaded as 2 pdfs versus visuals. Heat flux.pdf Zonal wind.pdf

Night 2 of the aurora although much fainter:

BWI: 20 DCA: 15 IAD: 20 RIC: 10 SBY: 25

thank you!

Airport? Lol

Still pretty cool! Nice shot

I did as well but at home I got this lousy drone shot with city light pollution in Raleigh and faint reds:

Nice post Larry.. Jan Natural Gas is the highest priced contact of the Winter season, implying this is the most -NAO month, but I think the weak-negative ENSO/-QBO might turn us warmer after December, maybe more Pacific-driven warmth. I do see -AO tendency in January this year. Also, Nov 24 - Dec 7 typical lag to -NAO is +35 days, so that is most correlated to -NAO Dec 29 - Jan 12

There are 5 major SSW events on record between Nov 24th and Dec 7th:-1958-1965-1968-1981-1987Here’s the Dec temp. anomaly map: E US mainly 1-2 F BN Here’s the Jan temp. anomaly map: E US mainly 2-4 BN, which incorporates extreme cold in places during 1966 (late), 1982 (mid) and 1988 (early): Here’s the Feb temp. anomaly map: E US NN: So, the coldest month regarding E US anomalies was Jan and the warmest was Feb. Feb. might have been even warmer (warmer than normal) had 4 of these 5 winters not been during El Niño, which tends to favor cold in the 2nd half of winter vs La Nina’s colder 1st half. All of this is telling me that should the late Nov major SSW actually occur, the coldest month could easily be Jan rather than Dec, which makes sense considering an assumed several week lag. But, of course, that would remain to be seen especially considering La Niña often favoring Dec as the coldest anomalywise. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-SSW-and-SFW-event-onset-date-year-and-type-identified-in-the-NCEP-NCAR-dataset-The_tbl1_267063738

2019 following the weak nino

I gave up and left before the aurora showed up. Least I got it yesterday lol

Very cool to be holding at 32° pretty much the entire event. Never mixed. Once the sun set we picked up a quick half inch. For now the precip remains focused on the region.

Yes, I see a lot of January 2006 like jet extension...it was in my analog list.

Euro and GFS has been weird for sure. Maybe it’s just that once you tweak one thing you “break” another? We don’t care if it’s more accurate in the South China Sea if it can’t handle confluence over us. I’m sure the European weenies feel the same way about us lol. In the tropical space though HAFS has been outstanding on intensity and the AI stuff has shown promise. In the Atlantic at least…

I can confirm that Eastern NC has NOT been getting more snow. Last year wasn't bad by our standards though. It made us happy.

That was a historic cold period in Eastern NC. RDU set a record for most consecutive hours below freezing. A pond at a park near my house froze over, which I had never seen in my life before. My PWS recorded 0 °F, and there was shore fast ice at the Outer Banks. Crazy times.

Aurora here!!

Wait til there’s a bonafide winter threat on the table for SNE…we’ll have to wait until an hour before go time, before we have a handle on what may unfold. Seems like that’s the trend the last several years. We’re going backwards it seems.

What year did we start into this extremely negative PDO cycle?