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Yeah, not crazy about the 12z Euro AI look versus the 06z Euro Op/AI look. But don't we always have just the most fun on a will she/won't she phase at -- what -- four days out? Room for improvement, room for disappointment. Budget for edibles.

sorry for being brief...trying to get yall visuals

Yeah, I did not like the 12z look.

It's good

Yes, Thursday will be everything coming into the NA RAOB network. However, we are putting recon schedules out to sample the area in the Pacific that will play an importance with the digging energy in the coming days. We will have plenty of sampling going on. N/S is probably the area to keep close eye on, although that seems to be well documented on guidance right now.

OK sorry to interlude but even tho the S/W is more west and closed it phases better than 0z and 6z

That's my guess, although we have seen a small step back on the phasing with 12z models besides the ICON but nothing like the GFS and we still get some decent snow. It could just be noise level stuff this far out too with the GFS just being an extreme outlier wrt handling that interaction.

The models and ensemble members that have a better phase are slower with the overrunning arrival and longer in total duration (CMC, UK, 6z ECM-AI). The worse phasing models (GFS, GFS-AI, 12z ECM-AI) are faster to arrive and shorter duration.

114, heaviest to our south and west...starting to march ENE

We need a little help from the Northern stream per the GFS. If Chatty gets that warm nose aloft, without the usual surface push, it's lights out! Dynamic cooling will help those already mostly sleet. No help with the saturated freezing rain soundings. I prefer the GFS for more snow here, but even that's bad for MS/AL.

Whole house humidifier for the win

Sorry TSSN,...you'll take this raw output and like it...no context and all

The differences at 12z for the Euro AI are much more noticeable at 500. Give me the look of the 06z OP Euro at 500 all day.

Euro AI is out and it's pretty similar. Main difference is timing a bit slower on the baha low. Overall impact on real weather is negligible as far as QPF output. The ultimate big dog would be a full ejection of the baha low with the PJ wave coming in behind. This would essential result in a more prolonged version of the storm. Also likely increase QPF and a SLP closer to the Atlantic coast/warmer air aloft. Not usually the most likely scenario. It's normally a partial ejection (95% of the time).

Reel in the banter during Randy’s pbp please

So it is in line with todays trends of holding the baja sw back a bit compared to it's 6z run. Don't know how it looks compared to anything 12z

Ukie had an increase over 0z 15-20+"

Throw that pc out. We have a MECS+ to track

So far today GFS somewhat on an island compared to GGEM, Ukmet and Euro plus Icon if we’re counting it. Wanting to hold the Baja energy back more so than other guidance. We’ll see how Euro looks momentarily but would need some trends for the GFS to happen. Plenty of time to do so obv. The crazy part is the Euro used to do horribly with southwest energy getting properly ejected and now the GFS seems to be having some issues. GFS Ensembles also would mirror the op in some senses from initial conditions so not sure we can truly weigh it. Time will tell friends..

The 12z ECM-AI clearly has more wave interference than 6z. Slower ULL ejection and worse phasing. It's not as favorable a solution as last run, which was very good.

This is by far my favorite storm given the setup and last-minute forecast.

yucky day so far

Just showing you what it says so you can use it to compare to whatever you want....but i'll do commentary also...just trying to get it to yall fast

Yes, unfortunately the warm nose is a demon we often fight against, especially the southern valley. Yes, models account for it, but the warm nose on some models is extreme around 800mb to 850mb. There's no way for rates to cool that much of a warm nose.