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Weird way to end up. All I take from this and previous runs is that the pattern is ripe.

Trying to November 1950 us.

Dc might not fall below 40 at this rate it is 48. lol Lets go for 50 again tomorrow.

January 31

All in all, I agree. Biggest 'issue' I have is staying out of the frz rain. If it snows 6 inches, great, snows 10? Awesome. 4" of snow and 3" of sleet? OK. Even more than 10 of snow? Bonus.

Warm nose already showing up next weekend

Same time frame at 12z...the slightly colder south trend allowed a band of 6" snowfall close to the transition line with the heavier precip near Memphis and esstward. Haven't looked at soundings, possible it is an algorithm error. Was just interesting how the slight colder air changed outcome that much.

If that happened verbatim, we’d either have to cut our trip short or see if we could stick around an extra day or three.

To say that, I'm expecting a lot less than my 19.3 is an overstatement In reality, I'm still expecting an extremely nice to maybe even historic event.

Ukie looks colder than 18z through 60 (which was end of run for the 18z).

Seems as modeled to me. Right now I am 38.7F. Most recent NAM calls for 39F. 24 hours ago NAM called for 37. Seems pretty good.

Too far inland...just blasts the cold air out

I will not get sucked in again… but hr 210 [emoji7][emoji7][emoji7] .

1/23 00z GEFS total mean QPF Total snow / sleet mean (10:1)

Deep Creek is getting buried this run.

That's what I saw when I posted

The arctic front doesn't come through until Friday evening, but when it does, the freeze is on. Multiple models show upper 30s at 4pm falling to low teens by 1am.

I think people are trying to wishcast away and latching onto anything. Also the general vibe in the last years for message boards/Twitter etc. on all topics has been to max out nihilism. Bottom line is we’re gonna get blasted. But *hopefully* for a lot of north central NC most of it falls as sleet which will be a super fun storm. .

I’m not far enough out, but it’s looking like it’ll be a Runner

Might be too much of a good thing and amp too much.

THermals are getting shaky tho..but if we hold them, it would be prolific ETA: Damn..we lose the thermals, but there was a biblical amount of precip heading up to us

He’s actually decent.

I'm paying attention since that map that buried me and @CAPE Y'all can have this weekend, we get next lol

My total I went with is a lot higher than my actual expectation. It's more of a gamble and what I want. This may be another controversial statement, but I would be perfectly happy with nineteen inches less than what I went with. That's how much I really love the snow man.

Jesus