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The GFS has quite a climactic ending.

Yeah, that is extra special mojo right there.

For Friday, the 18z GFS still has snow to a nasty wintry mix potential. It will all depend on the strength & position of that High sitting over Quebec. Lots of time, but good to see the trend from last night hold for today’s runs so far.

The IT keeps shifting a tad but I think Mike's Pit 2 is a good place for this one.

18z Euro still hammering the Mid Coast to here with the Norlun.

Snowy Christmas to you too!

Warm ridge in central US is slowly retrogressing and this Friday (possibly into Saturday as per CMC) wave is sliding down the retreating forward edge, a good scenario as it will lock in cold on northeast side of the wave. Also there's a good 50/50 type low forming as the Tuesday minor event explodes into a deep low south of NS and heads for s.e. Newfoundland. That locks in the cold high. I could see this being an over-performer and giving the NYC region 8 to 12 inches of snow. Mixing issues will be way south, like PHL to DCA. I expect the timing may begin to shift a bit towards Friday overnight into Saturday morning. Looks like it is followed by a slight warming trend before extreme cold descends after the arctic vortex amplifies over the Lakes. That could lead to another 1-2 inches of snow from outer edges of rapidly developing coastal near Cape Cod. This is an oddball if not unique pattern setting up so analogues won't be very helpful.

Lmao, I’m smart enough to not waste my time. Honestly, it wouldn’t make a difference if I did. Just a friendly reminder to not be surprised if this event doesn’t turn out to be much of anything despite some of the snow maps showing a few inches in borderline areas. The storm is happening during the day too which doesn’t help (even in late December) .

Also, this high-res Canadian panel tomorrow night has me salivating. This would be a crushing from 2am to 8am... with 850mb temps falling to -12C, great snow growth, serious upslope moisture. This would be a pummeling for the ski areas. Curious how this clipper works out.

Nice little snowy evening for the holidays.

Thanks for the curse. Mediocre Christmas to you!

Whats really cool with the pivotal map is my lat/long numbers is pretty much that period between the 14.5 on all their maps.... lol

Updated GYX map. Looks like it might be a PWM-Belfast coup.

Have you considered reading the thread to make sure that everyones expectations are up to snuff for you?

Some sort of wintry mix here.

if you compare temperatures when the precip moves in compared to last event, it's going to be colder this time around. Last time the temperatures got colder as the event got going, this event is the opposite it'll warm up as the event starts departing. Also this event is a bit smaller with precipitation amounts but like i said it is colder this time around!

Windy day. I loosened it just enough so I could get a good shot when the wind picked up.

It looks good for @mitchnickand points north, and has been like that for the past 3 model runs (not just the GFS) IMO.

We take the herpes up this way.

I guess I'll take number 18 with extra fries please

Last event featured a much colder airmass before the event (it did modify by the time precip moved in). Also, we remained snow during the entire event. Totally different set ups. We had thunderstorms the other day and it was 40 degrees in Fairfield CT today. 36 now. I am not expecting anything more than an inch here on the coast. You’re entitled to your opinion. I genuinely hope you’re right and I’m wrong. I just don’t see it for us on the coastal plain and city.. .

That said, I wonder if this will go too far north despite the other models. Will track - wish was on Christmas instead.

Remember this.............. Persistence can be a very good thing. How many times has a threat looked good on one run and been gone the next run??

Not much different on the mean compared to 12z. Noise. Y'all get too goddamn granular on the differences between runs. 18z is a hold.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 550 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025 PAZ025>027-231400- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0026.251223T0600Z-251223T1400Z/ Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Including the cities of Lewistown, Huntingdon, Mount Union, and Altoona 550 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Ice accumulations around a light glaze and possibly a coating of snow. * WHERE...Blair, Huntingdon, and Mifflin Counties. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures hovering around freezing overnight lead to reduced confidence in potential for impactful icing, but motorists should be alert for changing road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit weather.gov/StateCollege Banghoff/BaucoADVISED