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You’re right, I’m not going to split hairs but this event is much warmer in region 1+2 than 2015 was but I honestly don’t think it’s going to matter with how strong this thing is going to get. Moot point. By the end of November we are going to have a completely overwhelming beast of an El Niño on our hands and I think we blow away records with the traditional ONI, RONI and the MEI

Left handers coming up in the 8th inning. 88 pitches. Why pull Rodgers? Dumb move. No way to really know but with Buck it feels like a + 3 -5 more victories in the win column. This season.

Yes was looking on x and saw there was a model of a trough taking a nose dive from somebody it is summer time after all .

It looks like the ring of fire pattern could return. I was looking to see if any MCS possibilities were on tap.

I also heard between Sunday Monday timeframe could potentially be dealing with a mcs possibly https://x.com/0meterchasers/status/2081018000312881519?s=46&t=nTdsbQZkQMPkUI3zGjAXJg .

D4 yellow highlighted slight risk issued https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2026/day4-8_20260725.html .

.46'' this morning Up to 11.30'' for the month.

If I get into the 50s tonight, that will be something like 4/6 days in the 50s at the hottest time of year! Also Billings, MT just hit 111 a few weeks ago, breaking their all time high of 108.

CFS does have a 1983/1998 look to it, where we get - anomalies to the dateline. I don’t worry too much about Nino 1+2 or even much of Nino 3. What matters most to me is how far east we see suppressed convection. You’re pretty much never going to see heavy convection near 1+2 anyway.

As expected. Highs hovering around 80 in the area. Point fail.

I got under one of those heavy popup cells finally. 0.4" in about 10 minutes.

By far the nicest late July morning I can recall in years. Softball tourney day is usually under blazing sun even at 9am. Was perfection this morning.

It’s worse than what I said. I meant two blocks from DCA. Not even the part of Crystal City with “elevation.” Thought about Falls Church but decided the commute would be too far, so Reston is way too much!

This image shows well that ‘97 was much more E based on July 19th:

18z GFS floods

Man, the silver line extends out to Reston for a reason. You’d get a whole 30 minutes to maybe even an hour of more snow before the flip to rain in our warmer 2016 redux.

Yeah I’m feeling optimistic we can at least get to a point where convection shuts down in the MC, but still have work to do for getting suppression to the dateline. The interesting thing here is that 1983 and 1998 produced nearly identical results in OLR for the back half of winter but have different outcomes in the Eastern US. Goes to my original point I made awhile ago that KU events are a huge part “luck” and not to look too much into the exact placement of warm SSTAs for this. 1998 was close to one multiple times.

Think I'm moving to a new apartment in the fall. Out of the D.C. urban zone... into the Arlington urban zone literally 2 blocks from Crystal City. Might be a downgrade

Certainly looks like there will be some risk for strong-to-severe storms

Car read 86 in Lemoyne a few minutes ago

Wed is a big severe threat . At least SNE

They’re extremely shook. You love to see it

How is 2015 a poor analog? 2015: 15JUL2015 region 1.2 2.7 region 3 1.9 region 3.4. 1.4 region 4. 1.1 2026: 15JUL2026 region 1.2 3.6 region 3. 2.3 region 3.4. 2.1 region 4. 1.1 1997: 16JUL1997 region 1.2 3.8 region 3. 1.9 region 3.4. 1.4 region 4. 0.4 2026 is even stronger everywhere else, but region 4 is identical. Technically, this is more east-based than 2015 because there is simply more heat back east, and region 4 is the same, but 1997 was def. more east-based. Neither of them are perfect, but I prefer 2015 because in 1997 region 4 wasn't even in El Niño territory....but again, I think it's irrelevant. Region 4 is leveling off, as it was in 2015 at this time if you look at the data...dropped down from 1.1 to .7 by July 29th. I think you are unnecessarily splitting hairs...we can all agree there is too much warmth east for this to act like a Modoki. It's basin-wide that will act like and east-based in the mean bc of all of the warmth back east, but there will be more volatility than a strictly east-based event.