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You've convinced me to open a twitter account so I can make forecasting calls.

@ravensruleyou agree?

Not much on the snow maps but simulated radar shows possible flakes both tomorrow morning and NYD in parts of the area

Technically.... 0.1"

This is a limp grasp at a shadow.............................

Reggie holds the course for 1-4 for all of SNE

At hour 0, no change from the 12Z at 500mb.

Yeah I don't know what else to say. I mean December was not bad overall and it could have been worse. Sure I guess we could have had more snow given how cold it was and yes some areas got more than others, but it wasn't a shutout and nobody got shutout. Were people expecting 20-30"? We get snow...people complain because it wasn't enough, we don't get snow and people complain. People want snow and there are offerings of potential and people complain. I don't even know what the expectations are anymore lol

You lost everybody on that first sentence. What a crock of complete crap.

Alright guys. HH GFS is about to run. It was what renewed our hopes yesterday. And honestly? Please stop with the cliff jumping. It's kinda ridiculous.

Bottom line, it’s a pretty nice look…despite the BS that some are spewing.

Just snowed close to 9” here. Full cover and frozen solid, and 26 degrees..Speak for your own area.

Don, where does 2025-26 sit now in your winter severity index?

The 10 - 15 day features moisture trying to move northeast from the lower Mississippi valley. Confluence with LP over S.E Canada suppresses.

Temperatures briefly moderated in southwestern Manitoba, s SK and North Dakota, generally a little above freezing today, back into the deep freeze up there tonight. The milder air is making limited inroads into nw Ontario and Winnipeg region has warmed only into the mid-20s (F).

18z RGEM gets the low going a little sooner and north. 3-5” for SE Mass and cape. I’d take it

What’s measurable? A dusting? I’m not sure there’s going to be a lot of 1” or more amounts unless we get the secondary assist

I’m rolling with the RGEM on this one. Advisory snows in SE MA.

I broke my wrist in several places as a kid. Don’t recommend. Ruined my baseball career.

Imma be out there at 3am like Jack Skellington if NAM 3k is right...

Jonbenetramsay and pp smegma are correct. This pattern sucks. Thankfully they're here to let us know how shitty it is...

Much ballyhooed “winter over” torch comprised of 4 days with 7,8,9 plus departures in a month with six double digit negatives and 22 of the 31 days negative values

The EPS, GEPS and GEFS ensemble means for snowfall through 1/13, 12Z, generally dropped a decent amount in the last 24 hours (except for the GEPS north of NYC and not because any snow was forecast to fall over the last 24 hrs), presumably reflecting the pattern not being quite as good for cold and snow as it was 24 hours ago. On today's 12Z ensembles through 1/13, 12Z, Edison, NJ (25 miles SW of CPK, whose numbers look wonky on these graphics) dropped from 4.0" to 2.0" on the EPS, it fell from 3.5" to 2.8" on the GEPS and it fell from 3.5" to 2.3" on the GEFS. Picking one more point, White Plains dropped from 4.5" to 2.8 on the EPS, it jumped from 3.7" to 4.8" on the GEPS (the only increase) and it fell from 4.3" to 3.0" on the GEFS. Given how far out these go, I'm not even going to attempt to explain any of this - just noting a modest to significant decrease for most of the 95 corridor at least over the last 24 hours.

This was released by BAMwx: Thoughts? I’m going to need to research this myself to feel comfy with BAMwx’s idea of the highly counterintuitive idea of a very cold E US on average during La Niña (-AAM) Jan phase 6 periods. They’re saying this probably because GEFS is forecasting phase 6 going into mid-Jan as per my earlier MJO forecast post. I can do the analysis but it will take time. I’m planning to look at actual temp anoms for a city like ATL, Chat., Nashville, or GSP that’s in the heart of the coldest (pink) for all phase 6 days during Jan since 1975. Actually anyone can do it but one needs lots of time to do this. In the meantime, I’ll continue to root for weak to moderate 8-1-2 over 6 or even 7. @donsutherland1@bluewave