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BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 78.9W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 The depression is less organized on satellite imagery this evening, with a seemingly elongated low-level center near or just west of the deep convection. This structure is due to persistent southwesterly shear, with a mid-level circulation apparent east of the low-level center. The current intensity will remain 30 kt, consistent with data from the last Air Force reconnaissance mission and satellite trends. The system has been moving erratically recently, but a longer term motion is basically stationary. A slow north-northwestward motion is anticipated to begin on Saturday as the depression is steered on the northeast side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the northeastern Gulf. After that time, the system should be steered to the north and northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. This motion should bring the center near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. The new NHC track forecast was nudged to the east, consistent with the latest guidance. The global models generally indicate that the current shear should lessen on Saturday, which could allow for some strengthening in combination with the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. There is plenty of dry air aloft, however, which will probably limit significant development, as well as the current disheveled structure. The bulk of the guidance indicates modest strengthening as the system approaches the coast, and the new forecast follows suit, near the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 30.6N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 30.9N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 31.7N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 32.9N 79.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/0000Z 34.2N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1200Z 35.5N 78.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Vis is 1 mi

Nice smoke/haze. Lowell nasty;D

They weren’t nearly as bad here as a few nights ago. Lower dews maybe?

One of the worst 4ths in a while, but the weekend looks decent.

I am wearing 3 layers right now, long pants and hiking apparel basically. Mosquitoes are vicious

We were told that the dog we adopted was afraid of fireworks. A lot of people in our area (not directly next door) were doing them. We were out by the solo stove. She wasn’t bothered.

It's like D day down here non stop since 830

Great night for Fireworks out on Pt Judith.

LOL. I knew I'd trigger at least one person with that sweatshirt comment.

Cats and chickens And I don’t want the debris in my yard

Dog owner I'm guessing?

58 and dz with low ceilings would be better. F up these firework displays.

70/51 and not a cloud in the sky. Couldn't possibly be better.

fire towards watchung

What did the July 1 seasonals show for winter in that area in regards to GOA SSTs? It seems like the June 1 CANSIPS had it easing up a bit. I need to look more closely at July1.

I managed to find my way to Mammoth Lakes last week and part of this week. We saw it snow at 10k’ as a thunderstorm complex dropped temps like a rock while we’re hiking. We had temps in the low 40s. The mountain range to our east had new snowfall the next morning. Crazy how the weather behaves at high elevation.

What donkeys

Another 30C/86F day here, I'm racking up so many. Great strech of wx. The storms formed south of me weds which was nice. Heard the tree frog for the first time.

I doubt we see days of rain in July

what a puss

a sweatshirt? no need its perfect out..

We're a couple miles east of you. Not gonna make it to dark I don't think. Dog has already gone upstairs to bed.

Close. 62 for a high on Christmas and 72 on the 4th of July. Memorable !