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Day 3 Marginal risk issued for middle TN parts of east TN and southern ky west TN and rest of east TN in general thunder "HAZARD WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS; HOWEVER, SOME TORNADO THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE FROM PORTIONS OF IN AND OH INTO MIDDLE TN WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR." .
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I just move the decimal to the left one space for up here now
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Dewgust 2026: Summer's Last Stand
Damage In Tolland replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
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I was doing some digging last week and some of the extended guidance seemed to want and relax wind shear across the MDR a bit, however, I wasn't particularly sold and was wondering if that was a product of guidance in the extended favoring climo and wanting to decrease shear as we get closer to peak climo. Waters in the MDR are also pretty meh. Will continue to be a focus for home brew, especially as we start getting more active with fronts.
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Water temperatures are way too cold once you quickly get north of NC and there will be a lot of upwelling early next week. You would need probably a high end 3 or 4 approaching the Carolina coast and rapidly accelerate northward to get a cane hit here. Otherwise any system is would transition to extra-tropical or sub-tropical extremely quickly.
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Rains developing around me in Kearny, nj. Had some heavy mist. 75 degrees out.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
George001 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Imo the following winter is the one to watch for northern areas, not this upcoming one. I don’t see the roaring STJ dying off quickly especially if the El Niño lingers into the spring before collapsing into La Niña. When you combine the lingering STJ with a La Niña, big things can happen for northern areas. When it comes to sustained cold in an El Niño this powerful, I need to see it to believe it. Historical precedence for these super ninos is a warm east. -
Yeah all day basically with an occasional burst of a moderate shower. Today is a more dreary, wetter, cooler day than yday. Yday was fairly nice for the most part.
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And here's a rainbow that appeared for a few minutes after the storm passed. Both shots were from my DJI Air2S drone.
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It's not showing up on radar but there is random drizzle or showers in and around the city currently.
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Arctic ice area currently isn’t doing bad at all vs the avg for 2013-24, perhaps helped by the relatively cold 80N+:
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Yep, midlands low country and SE NC keep repetitively missing the rains
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Arctic ice area currently isn’t doing bad at all vs the avg for 2013-24, perhaps helped by the relatively cold 80N+:
