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Congrats NNE on the 12z GFS
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0.6” or so to start the month
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October is not ending up like 2018, 2019, 2023.. They were cold in the Rockies and Midwest. Looks like opposite pattern is setting up this Oct -
Periods of light rain moving through.
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Fall 2026 Medium/Long Range Pattern Thread
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
You could be right.Hardeman Co in TN had had a EF4 right before Christmas 2015, which tracked from MS,so regardless you can never say never.But in still 2015 was a well pronounced Central based NINO compared to this year,most of the severe should be further towards the Gulf states and not into our region this winter -
1.25 Largest 24 rainfall event since the late spring...
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Our most recent severe cold/snow Winters in October If you take out 2014 because that Winter had a record breaking ridge over the West, the October composite is much colder.
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I mean…you could I was born in Fairbanks.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
God, I hope that grouping fails spectacularly moving forward....I'd just assume drive out to the desert's of Albuquerque and shot-gun a cactus than experience anything akin to the past four El Niño events during this coming season. -
Yeah it was kind of eerie after spending some time outside Fri afternoon and they were singing almost nonstop. Then we go from late summer to early fall just like that. Hopefully we can get at least a week or so of “Indian summer” before the door fully slams shut by mowvember.
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Likely wait out a frost delay.
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Looks like MPV got down to 32°. Unfortunately my PWS is down so I don’t know what I got down to here. As for foliage, I think this weekend was probably peak.
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Of course Miller A is more prolific for the majority of the east coast, Miller B is dependent on N stream influx, so they are northeast centric....which is why we are more likely to get a favorable track and timing of evolution. Less time for it to go wrong....kind of like how storm chasers on the gulf coast would father a home-brew under pristine conditions than a CV long-tracker.
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I don't give a rat's ass about the east coast as a whole, I care about MBY.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
qg_omega replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Never before have we seen such warmth so far east based, really historic - Today
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We got one. I climbed up the tree and cut the last burr off and found a fertilized chestnut. You can see the difference between the two. @wxeyeNH Any fertilized nuts up there yet?
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Yes they do. I'm also slightly concerned about the face of my driver cracking.
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One of the few areas of North America that does really well with +EPO 500 mb pattern.
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Dewpoint over 60. Blah.
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I don't see why having snow in October would be a bad thing. Would you rather it be 80 in October? People here run away with a small matching number of statistics. You see this especially with Super Nino analogs.
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Anchorage also received 0.1" snow on October 1. That was its first measurable snowfall on record of October 1.
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cry for me
