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Torch !!

Low of 61 at PIT appears to break the streak of sub-60 lows at 21 days. Earliest in the season that we’ve recorded three full weeks of sub-60 lows.

Yawn. But Sept is usually a yawn month here unless a hurricane is coming up. Amazing how this season is dead as a doorknob though.

And the 6z this morning says what 90s? lol.

Record 500 mb ridge to our north will keep the heaviest rains to our south this week.

I'm not sure what the science is in this area of TC genesis ... or if there's any correlation at all, but this current high ranked invest out in the MDR has a very large initial mass field envelopment. I'm wondering if that presages a system that is also spatially larger than normal? It is evolving westerly return flow along the equatorial side, as evidence by cloud material/satellite, but these initial stages of that evolution extends to an unusually vast distance SW and S, some some 500 km ...

Wow what a difference. 4 more days of 90s here on the other side of the state. Finally maybe some rain by Friday.

Soil moisture very low across the entire Northeast and Mid-Atlantic

And on September first, PhiEaglesFan712 said fall had set in...

I'll take your word for it, though you ocean boaters probably aren't phased by 50 degrees and an onshore fetch...

63 / 61 p cloudy. Warm today and a bit more cloudy w/ upper 70s / low 80s. Onshore and more clouds building in Tue - Wed with the cut off ULL bringing showers / rain Wed / Thu AM. Clears out Thu PM / Friday warmest day in a while could see some upper 80s to 90 in the hottest spots. Dry weekend / a touch cooler/ Overall warmer Sep 9/22 and beyond.

Having an AN season seems unattainable at this point in terms of ACE and even NS. NN might be a stretch. It would take another ACE monster like Erin to even approach normal levels. With only 1 hurricane thus far it seems unlikely we will reach our average hurricane count as well. The current cherry certainly could develop and pad those numbers a bit but even that systems development keeps getting delayed somewhat on modeling. Really at a loss of words for this September. I thought 91L was going to kick off a more active period. I can’t even imagine our opinion of the year if Erin did not become the ACE machine it was.

Record breaking rainfall with the impressive -IOD pattern. La Niña in the modern climate The Bureau of Meteorology has just changed the way it calculates sea surface temperature anomalies for monitoring La Niña (and El Niño). Traditionally, sea surface temperatures inside the Niño 3.4 region were compared to the long-term average of the 30-year period from 1991 to 2020. The difference between the current temperature and the long-term average temperature gave us the anomaly used for monitoring La Niña. However, rising global ocean temperatures caused by climate change have made this method ineffective. Put simply, Earth’s oceans are warming so quickly that the average ocean temperature of the past 30 years is cooler than the current global ocean temperature. This makes Niño 3.4 index values artificially warm when calculated using the traditional method. Instead of comparing the current state of the ocean to a baseline from the past climate, scientists have developed a new method that also incorporates the current average temperature of the global tropical oceans. This new method, with is called the relative Niño index, removes the climate change signal from the equation and makes it more useful in our rapidly warming climate.

Those 4 seasons are all normal to slightly above normal snowfall around here.

locked in

Summer

Yesterday was the 4th day this month to reach 86° at SMQ. This has lead to the highs running +0.9 this month. Since it has been so dry, the minimums have been running -3.2°.

Glad we cancelled

Sometimes fall patterns can be harbingers for the coming winter. 1977 is an excellent example. Low pressure over eastern NC. tomorrow with chilly high pressure wedging down from New England....................... Can this become a habit as we slide into winter????

NYC has had many issues with tree growth on top of the equipment due to neglect when the NWS moved out to Upton back in 1993. So the new ASOS was installed in 1995 under a dense canopy leading to artificial cooling on sunny days. While this artificial cooling is exaggerated when the trees leaf out since 1995, they do get some artificial cooling in winter due to the taller trees and lower sun angle. So it’s no longer a reliable first order site for temperatures in our area last 30 years. I used JFK since its Liberty’s main station that he follows since it’s closer to his home station than the other sites are.

@stormchaserchuck1 Your speculation on the -PDO/-ENSO link that late September and October would turn warm appears to be coming to fruition. It also looks like a continued dry pattern for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

0Z runs -are fairly similar to the 12Z for the Icon, GFS, and CMC -This time the UKMET is even further W and threatens Bermuda: 0Z UK: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 18.0N 48.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 18.09.2025 72 18.0N 48.8W 1008 38 1200UTC 18.09.2025 84 20.0N 51.3W 1007 42 0000UTC 19.09.2025 96 21.2N 53.2W 1007 38 1200UTC 19.09.2025 108 22.7N 55.1W 1008 30 0000UTC 20.09.2025 120 22.5N 57.2W 1008 32 1200UTC 20.09.2025 132 23.1N 58.3W 1009 31 0000UTC 21.09.2025 144 23.3N 59.8W 1008 33 1200UTC 21.09.2025 156 23.9N 61.0W 1008 35 0000UTC 22.09.2025 168 24.3N 63.1W 1007 31

I walked outside again at the park just like I did late afternoon Fri. I had low 70s temps and dewpoints of 60. Despite no breeze, I didn’t sweat at all and actually could feel a very slight chill!

Had a low of 49 and a high of 74. This so called summer coming back is pathetic. My temps getting revised down and down. Was supposed to have a high of 81 tomorrow but now im at 76.