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Surface temps are a little sketchy - crashes as it goes. But pretty nice. Maps coming

Gfs

GFS about to go off

GFS is solid

GfsAI is a hit with some mix, but turns into a decent bomb. Not perfectly clean, but another tick in the right direction. Not sure how much snow though with lousy TT maps.

GFS gonna be a very nice hit

The coastal being a whiff would be pretty much on par with everything we’ve seen for months. It’s a whiff or it doesn’t even happen. im happy to concede whatever this Wednesday deal is to the NOP folks, they’ve can have it. Enjoying the melt here

It was flatter on this run

Looks like first two are more north which skunk south zones then the big one could whiff.

Simple setup

AIgfs has been locked in on a warmer coastal hugger

00z AIGFS another trend SE with weaker primary, almost a blizzard this run. One or two more ticks SE

Check out the Village Level https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/the-village Those fences are 2 feet tall. They're goin under tonight. The chairs in the center, they might get covered up too. This is one hell of a snowstorm at Mammoth and Tahoe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mid 40s in Tolland and mid 30s in South Weymouth.

So strange I barely remember that storm, probably because it was on a Saturday. And the winter of '95/'96 was so long. It was in the high 30s/low 40s until mid April and felt like it would never end. My GF, now wife, and I went to Florida in March and we basked in the 80 degrees for 10 days. We come back and it was freezing rain and 38. Awful

0Z ICON nothing like its 12Z hit. Weak low well off the SE coast. At least it is not a cutter. Struggling with the multiple vortices at 500MB with no phase.

@brooklynwx99 posted this in another thread earlier this evening. “this speaks for itself... AIFS-ENS is very similar to Feb 21. not advertising impacts like that, obviously, but it's becoming clear that this setup holds high end potential. we'll see how things trend in the coming days, but man that is uncanny”

38 ORH 48 HFD Big difference. Love the mesoscale variations.

Just looks mild down here P+C calls for mostly sunny 46.. we’ve gone higher than forecast several days in a row..

Bingo

Ha over on discord I said the H5 sort of reminded me of Jan 31-Feb 1 2021. Idk what it was, some of the model runs had the same look to them as that one. Someone on Philly discord posted the H5 and it’s almost a perfect match

What the qpf takes away from here hopefully the cold gives back. 2-4” or 3-5” still seems likely.

I’ll be in Houston eating well Saturday and you’ll be smoking high cirrus probably. But I’ll still do pbp just for you to see you go into a calamity and call it disastrous when it shows 17” instead of 20

We've been hitting 40-41 recently so I noticed on Saturday that we have a 1" or so crust on top from the melt and re-freeze each day, but under that there's still a good 7-8" of powder in most places around the yard. A very different year for snow retention all around.

They are probably gonna get it. Winter is NOT done with the DMV yet either.