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HRRR has it getting into the HV and western CT before falling apart....

ahhhh...I was just thinking about this earlier and if it was MLCAPE or MUCAPE to follow...couldn't remember

Will be interesting to see how this progresses because the stronger instability will continue building east towards the CT River along with the ridge building too

I watch trends on the MUCAPE or 850 dews. It's been riding the 2000 J/kg or +16C isodrosotherm. That isn't forecast to make a concerted push into SNE.

Kinda weird that it’s gonna be hotter there than in Vegas this week, for at least a couple days. Was breezy af all weekend but now winding down and barely hitting the low 90s. Sunday and yesterday felt more like Denver than Vegas. Pretty great hiking weather.

I do think CAMs are struggling with this. It's a well developed MCS, with MCV probably in there now and guidance is almost certainly decaying it too quickly. But I think the HRRR is on the right track, showing the southwestern end being the focus. That's where all the deeper instability is. SNE is all 0-3 CAPE.

Another thing to watch: the warmest low ever recorded at the airport is 77, on 7/23/2010 and 7/16/1980. Seems attainable, possibly Friday morning.

Looks like its starting to turn a bit

We did finally hit 90 in South Bend yesterday. We're already at 90 today. Currently 90/75.9/102

yeah, never was ours. Just hope someone west gets mowed down....next

Damage reports came in just north of town.

gotta say...its a bit more unstable than models were forecasting in our region today

I did that a little earlier too and like yourself nothing remarkable going on except rain

I’m distinctly non partisan when it comes to t storms lol

That thing will go right down HRV into NNJ and NYC . Likely Jack Dick for SNE

I watched a live webcam from Watertown but was pretty meh for the most part.. storms firing just west of here now.. hoping for something

Which year between 10-11 or 11-12 had a very strong Arctic warming?

well hell if this doesn't confirm what I just said to Wiz DISCUSSION...Volumetric radar data from KTYX indicate a bow echo with a well-defined rear-inflow jet moving southeast at around 50 kt. Extrapolation of current motion takes the bow echo to the vicinity of Watertown, NY, between 1:00-1:30 PM EDT. Visible satellite imagery shows considerable mid/upper-level cloudiness and some elevated convection ahead of the MCS across the Tug Hill region; however, stronger heating is occurring across the Finger Lakes and far western NY with latest objective analysis indicating MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Persistent westerly low-level flow will advect that more unstable air mass into the region ahead of the MCS. Thing is, these things tend to expand. I may turn right.. not sure, but I could see an outflow arc evolving with growth along it doing that curl and that would probably end up near ORH later this evening.

Wouldn’t doubt it. Very dry mid levels here. Though sometimes these very long lasting MCS/derechos can pull a rabit out of a hat. I’ll take any rain I can get. Spent the morning watering weeping hydrangeas. .

Congrats HRV

I think we're getting clocked ... big wind potential mcs

Destructive tag for the storm throttling Watertown right now.