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  2. ineedsnow
    77/64 pretty meh considering today was supposed to be oppressive
  3. mitchnick
    5 day average https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2026071400&fh=264
  4. wxeyeNH
    As of 11:15am an extremely thick smoke layer has moved overhead. I can look up at the sun and see it very clearly. No cirrus but an erry yellow glow like NYC had several years ago. I have never seen a smoke layer as dense as this while ground visibility is over 25 miles 75/64
  5. FPizz
    Nope. Of course the whole week (and most of summer to this point) is dry too, which is so annoying. We will make the best of it, but rain would just add to the stress levels. New ICON is pretty rainy
  6. mitchnick
    Eps says it's coming to a N. Hemisphere near you. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026071400&fh=210
  7. Brian5671
    Never easy is it? That will be us next year. Would be a mess here with rain
  8. Chrisrotary12
    About as useless as today’s event then. An EF3 will probably rip up a few million trees and no one will know.
  9. Hailstoned
    Scientist tackles James Joyceian stream of consciousness. Fascinating!
  10. MANDA
    Fingers crossed for you. Been there done that. It does suck.
  11. MANDA
    Current satellite of smoke plume. Surprised more air quality alerts are not being issued, at least for Upstate NY and New England?
  12. FPizz
    Will take the morning or the night. My girls' grad party on Sat and will have nearly 100 people over. I'll have 2 large tents, but rain would still suck. ugh
  13. Typhoon Tip
    It's actually normal for nocturnally driven MCS to decay after sun rise. Granted, that one did have a weak perturbation in the flow that helped ignite it way up there overnight, but once that happened... part and parcel to the vitality of the S part of the M C S ( mesoscale convective system) is what's known as "radiative cloud top cooling" ...this factor destabilizes the region over the MCS at mid and high levels; a smaller quotient of what is needed for the overall instability/machinery for the embedded cyclonic cycling to keep going. Sun rises; that factor disappears. poof. Anyway not sure what happened last month but just sayn'
  14. weatherwiz
    The same can be said anywhere really when it comes to lapse rates. There was a setup in the midwest a few months back which was flagged with higher tornado probabilities and potential for strong and long-tracked tornadoes but that never materialized...and it was a setup in which they had relatively weak lapse rates. It truly is hard to get a full fledged higher end severe weather outbreak without the present of steep lapse rates. The lapse rates here that day were horrible...but I recall they weren't modeled to be as bad as what actually transpired.
  15. MANDA
    Will be hard to beat that smoke plume from June 2023. That was something else. I remember driving along Rt. 80 in my area and smoke was at ground level blowing across the road. Visibility was low and the air smelled of burning wood. If you didn't know better you would have thought it was from a local forest fire, not something from up in Canada.
  16. frd
    Wow
  17. bluewave
    It would be interesting to see what is causing the delayed response this time in the mid-latitudes. Even by MJJ in 2023 with all that mid-latitude SST warmth and strong -PDO +AMO, the pattern was strongly El Niño in the mid-latitudes. While summer correlations are weaker with the larger El Niño grouping including weak and moderate, the developing super El Niño subset has been fairly strong. At least so far we are seeing something new from this one for MJJ.
  18. winterwx21
    Looking like the rain could be here during the morning Saturday.
  19. LakePaste25
    yeah there’s a solid mid latitude response happening in Chile. Nice mid latitude cell off the coast, extended pac/STJ and they’re getting blasted with rain and mountain snow. That’s what’s convincing me right now.
  20. ineedsnow
    Cloudy and some smoke around.. sun is trying to come out but cant.. maybe only upper 80s here today?
  21. A-L-E-K
    It's coming x sunset season
  22. OceanStWx
    This kind of event has so much potential in New England for main reason that you rotate the entire flow pattern and create something more akin to what happens in the Midwest. Around here you typically have much more stable air to the southeast, the complete opposite of central CONUS severe weather. Northwest flow allows stable air to be in the right top quadrant relative to the storms. Check out the line of cumulus marking the surface based instability. Also the forecast for theta-e later today. That marks the warm front, and storm motion is parallel to this. So this is the exact orientation you need for long tracked supercellular storms.
  23. Voyager
    Starting to notice the smoke in the Tamaqua area today already.
  24. CoastalWx
    Also, we had putrid lapse rates that day. A ton of shear, but not a lot of instability. You know what that means in SNE.
  25. brooklynwx99
    my thinking as of now is that the El Nino will take a foothold on the pattern as we head into autumn, but we will see. as you know, coupling is always pretty weak in the summer
  26. bluewave
    Getting very close in Nino 1+2 now to 1997 with 2026 leading in all other areas. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ …….Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 08JUL2026 25.5 3.4 28.3 2.3 29.4 2.0 30.0 1.2 08JUL2015 24.7 2.5 27.8 1.8 28.7 1.3 29.8 1.0 09JUL1997 25.6 3.5 27.7 1.7 28.6 1.3 29.3 0.5
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