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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
Torch Tiger replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
next Tuesday could be fun, esp. SW NE? -
Congrats to the rest of the country. Don S post yesterday: Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (0.1° below normal).
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Pretty wild the NHC had to include this in its discussion this morning: The timing of the use of the name Dolly for this storm is purely coincidental. Tropical storm and hurricane names for the North Atlantic Basin originate from six pre-determined rotating lists established by the World Meteorological Organization Region IV Hurricane Committee. The name Dolly replaced Diana after the 1990 hurricane season and was first used in 1996.
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
SouthCoastMA replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
September is the new August -
Holy thunder & Lightning
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Hello, Dolly!
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Lights flickering on the Oakland/Wayne border. No wind though. Very unusual.
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SPC has marginal risk out for east tn for 5% damaging winds and 5% hail .
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I didn’t see the radar loop yesterday (8/26) for my area. However, based on radar based rainfall estimates shown by local TV websites and considering Hunter’s 1.27”, I’m roughly estimating my home got a 2nd day in a row of a good hit yesterday with 0.75” (for 8/26). I’m not there to see a measurement. I already very roughly estimated 1.5” the day before (for 8/25). That puts my place at ~~7.25” MTD, a very beneficial wetter than normal being there’s still a moderate drought there lingering per the latest Drought Monitor.
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The relief from the heat was nice, as were the low DPs. Back up into the 70's with current DP. Looks like another extended period AN just as football season kicks off, joy
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Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly being initiated at 11 o'clock ante meridiem.
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
weatherwiz replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Agreed. Models too continuing to show enlarging of the hodographs through the day as well with decent instability. -
Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
Typhoon Tip replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
A little more encouraged re convection today as the orientation of the fields has a better change for residuals chugging E of the ignition region -
Funny, getting classified as the shear leaves it a naked swirl, whereas it was likely a TS most of the night and looked much, much better
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Maybe ORD will snag another 1 or 2. I think they are sitting at 12 for the year. That's gotta be below average I would think.
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https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2026-2027-first-forecast-super-el-nino-polar-vortex-snow-cold-united-states-canada-europe-fa/?fbclid=IwdGRjcAT9JoxjbGNrBP0l63Bkb2YFZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQMMzUwNjg1NTMxNzI4AAEezbLprzeZm_l4j6uPr56iE-akeZ4XeTHsxqlAWZXPbVtqB7lAYJMCHZffT68_aem_PgtonIDoor2992y5PIongQ
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
MJO812 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Good read https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2026-2027-first-forecast-super-el-nino-polar-vortex-snow-cold-united-states-canada-europe-fa/?fbclid=IwdGRjcAT9JoxjbGNrBP0l63Bkb2YFZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQMMzUwNjg1NTMxNzI4AAEezbLprzeZm_l4j6uPr56iE-akeZ4XeTHsxqlAWZXPbVtqB7lAYJMCHZffT68_aem_PgtonIDoor2992y5PIongQ -
Coincidentally, the next tropical storm will be named Dolly... we really do live in a simulation.
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The advisory says it's expected to be short lived. So, Dolly is going to be a 9 To 5 storm?
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Nice 9-10”+ rain bullseye for old Ellicott city on the 12z NAM nest
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First advisory on Dolly coming at 11am.
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
tamarack replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
The 2 most recent events that promised widespread rain (a couple days prior to each) totaled 0.15" here, so I'm not very optimistic for today/tomorrow. Probably just enough clouds to block our view of the lunar eclipse. We're about 1-for-10 on lunars, usually due to clouds but sometimes because we don't care to get up at 2 AM to watch. This one peaks here shortly after midnight. -
Those showers in NE MD look more potent on radar then what they really are. I had one of the storm returns go over me and it barely wetten the driveway.
