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  2. lol I wonder how much people are paid to program these models Where's the raindancewx post where Canadian had a cool Aug for the US at 0.0 month lead and it was near the warmest on record!
  3. Thank you! Have you had a chance to compare these to the prior forecast’s maps? My first impression is that Dec is a good bit cooler than I expected as per analogs. Edit: @snowman19must be flipping out seeing how cool Dec is!!
  4. I really think this might be one of, if not the most humid summer we’ve ever had. These dewpoints are straight out of the gulf coast states.
  5. EWR with its 80 degree reading today ties 2015 as having all days this month with a high / max of 80 or above. While not a strongly above normal month, and a wet one, it is quite a feat.
  6. That was some torch to end the month! Seriously what were those AHATT jabroni's looking at? Not models obviously.
  7. February is marginally better than the previous run too.
  8. An improvement over the previous run. Better in the EPO and NAO domains for Jan. Colder look for the MA.
  9. Kind of a weird afternoon here, it seems to get humid then breezy and less humid. Was almost tempted to shut the air off and open the house up, goad I didn’t
  10. DCA: +2.2 NYC: +1.6 BOS: +1.1 ORD: +1.4 ATL: +2.7 IAH: +1.9 DEN: +1.4 PHX: +1.7 SEA: -0.4
  11. True, but I think what matters here is that there’s still shallow convection firing around the center. The circulation has continued to become better defined with spiral banding now. Radar definitely helps. A well-timed DMAX burst in the morning with some frictional convergence could help this spin up nicely. Can see that a bit now that HAFS has recon data assimilated now.
  12. I like NHC call if around 50 kts landfall. Don’t think it has time for hurricane intensity unless it can throw up some serious overnight convection, but the overall organization and small circulation definitely favors intensification. That dry air to the north could choke off development, that needs to be watched, but otherwise it has a good look overall
  13. https://x.com/tropicaltidbits/status/2094534882815082520?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .
  14. Today
  15. It lacks deep convection though. Not impressive on IR...but I do see the well defined circulation on radar.
  16. About a nickel from shower that rolled thru between 4 and 5 pm. Made it humid/muggy x 1000 out there.
  17. I have a bunch of work stuff scheduled, but if this is the real deal I might just try a quick turnaround flight. Radar definitely looks increasingly robust and seeing this kind of organization at this time of the day is intriguing.
  18. Would need to come in around Port Arthur. There's literally nothing between High Island and there besides a little of 87 into Sea Rim Park.
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