All Activity

FWIW: The last 3 even years (2020, 2022, and 2024) all had record 75+ warmth (at PHL) in early November. All of these years had a +QBO. 2020-11-06 71 46 58.5 8.0 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-07 75 47 61.0 10.9 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-08 76 46 61.0 11.2 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-09 75 47 61.0 11.6 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-10 76 48 62.0 12.9 3 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-11 71 61 66.0 17.2 0 1 1.48 0.0 0 Nov 2020 QBO: +11.15 2022-11-01 74 58 66.0 13.8 0 1 0.13 0.0 0 2022-11-02 71 51 61.0 9.1 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-03 72 45 58.5 7.0 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-04 73 47 60.0 8.8 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-05 78 56 67.0 16.2 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-06 77 67 72.0 21.5 0 7 T 0.0 0 2022-11-07 79 56 67.5 17.4 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-10 70 43 56.5 7.4 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-11 72 57 64.5 15.7 0 0 0.44 0.0 0 2022-11-12 71 60 65.5 17.1 0 1 0.07 0.0 0 Nov 2022 QBO: +12.45 2024-11-01 81 57 69.0 16.8 0 4 T 0.0 0 2024-11-05 76 50 63.0 12.2 2 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-11-06 80 61 70.5 20.0 0 6 0.00 0.0 0 2024-11-07 78 58 68.0 17.9 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 2024-11-08 72 49 60.5 10.7 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-11-11 74 54 64.0 15.2 1 0 0.15 0.0 0 Nov 2024 QBO: +13.78

Today will turn noticeably more humid with temperatures around 5 degrees above normal in the lower 80's for most spots. We could see a brief shower in spots this morning. A cold front crosses the area late tonight with maybe a couple showers. We turn a bit cooler and less humid tomorrow and Saturday with near normal temperatures. Rain chances increase by late Saturday night and look to last through the day on Sunday. We turn unseasonably chilly to start the new work week with my backyard ChescoWx model forecast keeping afternoon highs both Tuesday and Wednesday in the upper 50's.

Picked up 0.99” overnight. Most rain we’ve had since the end of July and nearly doubling our August-September total so far. Glad to have it.

Today will turn noticeably more humid with temperatures around 5 degrees above normal in the lower 80's for most spots. Some spots will see a shower this morning. A cold front crosses the area late tonight with maybe a couple showers. We turn a bit cooler and less humid tomorrow and Saturday with near normal temperatures. Rain chances increase by late Saturday night and look to last through the day on Sunday. We turn unseasonably chilly to start the new work week with my backyard ChescoWx model forecast keeping afternoon highs both Tuesday and Wednesday in the upper 50's.

Many here last week were promoting mid to upper 80's for Weds and Thursday.

The next two rain chances look really uninspiring. Some showers later today north of the pike and maybe some rain Sunday evening? Looks like that one favors the same areas that have gotten it all summer, west and southern CT. Definitely doesn’t look like anything you can count on

late fri/sat looks like another nice train setup somewhere of n il, the trend of zzzzs and followed by a few inches looks to continue

Was an OK storm for Cape Cod, we had 60-70mph gusts. I always felt slighted by Floyd though, another 50mi east with less land interaction and that was close to a hurricane there

5.88" here with gusts in the 40s, our most recent significant TC. Only 0.11" from being our biggest rain event, which came in June 1998, our first full month after moving here.

Haw haw

Had the wrong day posted LOL. Corrected.

Feb-Mar 1993 was epic, with 7 storms 7" to 14.5", totaling (with some small events) over 80". The superstorm brought the pack to 31", tallest in our 13 winters in Gardiner. That capping event was a bit disappointing at our place, if a double-digit snowfall can disappoint. Listening to "1-3 feet with life-threatening conditions" had me primed for a storm of the lifetime. Instead, we had 10.3" of heavily rimed 6:1 flakes, almost the lowest report in New England and 3rd biggest of the winter. (BHB and Block Island had 10.0".) Temps during the storm were upper teens to 20. The storm did bring wind 30-45 mph. A favorite wind report at 8 AM - BGR was calm while 50 miles to the SE, Mt. Desert Rock reported 60 knots.

September 17 1955: A late-season tornado hits Koochiching County. Most damage is confined to trees. 1911: Pipestone is hit with baseball-sized hail that smashes numerous windows at the Calumet Hotel and high school. The local observer measures hail three inches deep. People get their photos taken in automobiles surrounded by the icy white ground. For Thursday, September 17, 2026 1932 - Concord NH was drenched with 5.97 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a record for that location (16th- 17th). (The Weather Channel) 1963 - Nearly two and a half inches of rain fell at Yuma AZ in 24 hours. It was the most intense rain for Yuma during the period between 1909 and 1977. (The Weather Channel) 1965 - A storm produced a band of heavy snow across parts of Wyoming. Totals of 23 inches at Rawlins and 20.7 inches at Lander easily surpassed previous snowfall record totals for so early in the season. (15th-17th) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain in the northeastern U.S. Heavy rain in southwestern Pennsylvania forced evacuation of twenty homes along Four Mile Run Creek, near Darlington. Harrisburg PA established a record for the date with 2.11 inches of rain. A cold front in the central U.S. brought freezing temperatures to parts of Montana and Wyoming. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Early in the morning a tornado hit Kelly Air Force Base in San Antonio, TX, injuring three persons and causing twenty-eight million dollars damage. A second tornado on the northwest side of San Antonio caused six million dollars damage, and a third tornado in Bexar County killed one person and injured another. Thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Gilbert spawned a total of forty-seven tornadoes in a two day period, with forty of those tornadoes in central and south central Texas. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Hurricane Hugo hit the Virgin Islands, producing wind gusts to 97 mph at Saint Croix. Hurricane Hugo passed directly over the island of Saint Croix causing complete devastation and essentially cutting off the island from communications. A storm surge of five to seven feet occurred at Saint Croix. The only rain gauge left operating, at Caneel Bay, indicated 9.40 inches in 24 hours. Hurricane Hugo claimed the lives of three persons at Saint Croix, and caused more than 500 million dollars damage. A ship, Nightcap, in the harbor of Culebra, measured wind gusts as high as 170 mph. A cold front brought high winds to the Great Basin and the Rocky Mountain Region, and thunderstorms along the cold front produced wind gusts to 66 mph at Yellowstone Park WY. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 2004 - The remnants of Hurricane Ivan submerged Pittsburgh in 5.95 inches of rain in one day. That is the most rainfall Pittsburgh has seen in a 24-hour period since records began in 1876. Observances: 17 Thu Citizenship Day 17 Thu National Pet Bird Day 17 Thu International Country Music Day 17 Thu Constitution Day 17 Thu Time's Up Day 17 Thu World Patient Safety Day 17 Thu International Patient Safety Day 17 Thu International Grenache Day 17 Thu National Arielle K. Sterrett Day 17 Thu National DEI Day 17 Thu National Monte Cristo Day 17 Thu National Pet Carbon Monoxide (CO) Safety Day 17 Thu National Professional House Cleaners Day 17 Thu National Table Shuffleboard Day 17 Thu Smithsonian Day 17 Thu National Apple Dumpling Day

Low of 63.

@dendrite @Chrisrotary12 As drought expands across central NH again this fall, in some places it never fully went away

Conclusions Concerning the Extra Tropical Pacific It will be the volatility of the northern Pacific that will dictate the mercurial nature of winter 2026-2027, and an unprecedentedly powerful El Niño will be the primary catalyst. The barrage of immense WWBs responsible for the extreme magnitude of El Niño will also ensure that winter is mild in the mean due to the initial eastern orientation of the warm ENSO event. Ironically enough, it is these same WWBs that will also preclude winter 2026-2027 from being as warm as many within weather circles who have been conditioned by climate change may think, as it will also act to reduce the heavy MC flavor that we have become so accustomed to in modern versions of El Niño. There are no "silver bullets" with respect to seasonal forecasting, but perhaps the closest notion is the ability to hone in on the most anomalous pattern driver and simply follow its' lead. In case it hasn't been mentioned, El Niño is about to set the record for just about every measurement used to assess its' intensity, and the 4.1C anomaly measured in region 1.2 the weeks of July 29th and August 5th are the greatest ever recorded within any ENSO region. Excuse this forecaster for not being surprised that the winter 2026-2027 Extra tropical Pacific composite just so happens to be a carbon copy of the ENSO region 1.2 correlation with the winter pattern. In closing, forecast symmetry for winter 2026-2027 continues to strengthen with he addition of the extra tropical Pacific to the consensus. Polar Analog Composite, Solar Analog Composite QBO Analog Composite, Extra Tropical Pacific Composite Intense El Niño Composite, Basin-Wide El Niño Composite:

Primary Polar Analogs: 1982-1983, 2015-2016 2026-2027 Polar Analog Composite: The mean DJFM AO value of the polar composite near neutral and barely positive, at .09, and the NAO is moderately positive at .49, with high latitude blocking heavily weighted towards February and March, all of which represent a reasonable preliminary seasonal forecast for winter 2026-2027.

0.06" from a batch of shwrs that moved through last night. Looks like a nice Fall day with highs around 70 on a light SW wind.

love when the miss south/little or nothing hits like this^

It still does have a system / vorticity breaking off of the CAG 130'ish hours into the 6Z run, it just fails to develop a fully fledged TC and bring that into the GOM. That could just as easily come back on the 12z today. Again, chaotic. Though, yes, it also breaks off vorticity and develops a hurricane late in the run. Meh, these simulations will remain complete choas until something actually resolves. If anything can be taken from these runs at this point, it's to say we should have a warbling surface trough gyre establish itself by this weekend over central America and we just need to watch for any pieces of energy and vorticity that may break off on either side of the landmass (EPAC or WCARIB) for potential development over the next few weeks. The MJO is heading toward favorable phases for TCG at this time of year, which Joe Bastardi has been appropriately emphasizing in his call for activity:

Yeah, the CAMs struggled to figure out where the storms would fire. The RRFS was by far the worst. Up until bedtime it had southeast Iowa getting hit. I was hoping I wouldn't get missed south, but instead most of it went north. I caught the southern edge of the band and finished with a solid 1.06". There were some nice boomers, too.

It still does have a system / vorticity breaking off of the CAG 130'ish hours into the 6Z run, it just fails to develop a fully fledged TC and bring that into the GOM. That could just as easily come back on the 12z today. Again, chaotic. Though, yes, it also breaks off vorticity and develops a hurricane late in the run. Meh, these simulations will remain complete choas until something actually resolves. If anything can be taken from these runs at this point, it's to say we should have a warbling surface trough gyre establish itself by this weekend over central America and we just need to watch for any pieces of energy and vorticity that may break off on either side of the landmass (EPAC or WCARIB) for potential development over the next few weeks.

Water is falling from the sky at nice heavty rate!