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Euro is minor

More than the last?

I think the broader point is that verification scores aren’t gonna translate to specific areas for specific events… just not how it works. You can take or leave them as how a model performs if you want to but it’s kinda the only objective measure And it’s correct to say the AIFS was first to ID a big east coast storm. It was just wrong for us. But thr GFS was even more wrong!

yeah i wonder why, Euro ai shows a decent hit

No. The record for Denver is 40.2° during Winter 1933-34.

Just skip this run. It's not horrific like Ji said, but it's pretty paltry

Mid to late 70s something clearly changed....

Heh

also the snow fell at temps close to freezing

It’s not out that far on Pivotal yet. The AIFS is showing 3-5 in the area, higher numbers NW of the city

2014-15 is still the record holder, correct?

Yeah figured something like this would happen.

Looks horrific

what did the euro show?

Anyone got euro op yet. I’m out to 84 on my site but it’s always behind

I mean it was wrong lol. Just cause a model shows a low over the Midwest an it ends up in the Ohio valley doesn’t mean it was right. Ya all the models show outputs that maybe somewhat close but when we are looking at our area what happens matters.

It’s starting to look like more of a Tuesday-Wednesday event than a Monday event

After last year’s dog turd of a winter, I am satisfied with this years experience. Hell of an improvement from last year if we’re keeping it real. we had 17” or whatever it was at ORD last season

If we had weather chats through those 50 we would have bitched through most of them. [emoji2375]

Yes, by Sunday it will be in Maine. Lol.

But this point is actually a great example of what I meant by "when all we care about is how much snow falls in our yard it might not align with verification scores". Yes the AIFS had multiple runs in the day 5-8 range with HECS snowfall results for our area. But, those results were real, just displaced about 150 miles to the northeast. And no other model, at those ranges, were even close...the GFS didn't start showing those crazy snow totals until like day 4 out. So when compared to all the other models, which didn't have an HECS anywhere at all...the AIFS which had it but displaced a small amount too far southwest, the AIFS was by far the closest to the truth (the less wrong) model in the day 5-8 period. We look at them all wrong, in that we expect them to be exactly right at a range that there is almost no chance they will be. The AIFS showing a HECS somewhere in the northeast at all day 5-8 was a win for it...but we think it was wrong because the big snow ended up not over us.

Erika about slid off her chair after he dropped the GFS getting pulled in the 8th analogy. "As someone said". Good one.

You live by climo and die by climo, beggars can’t be choosers. For some perspective we have 50+ seasons on record of below 30” at ORD. https://www.weather.gov/lot/Chicago_seasonal_snow

Also an A doesn’t mean we met our expectations, it means we greatly exceeded them. So a C+ takes into account the November surprise and the sputtering CAD’s of January. All decent.

I think the Euro OP will be better than its previous run