All Activity

Last 4 days "warmup" EWR: 2/2: 37 / 15 (-2) 2/3: 36 / 17 (-6) 2/4: 35/26 (-2) 2/5: 32 * so far NYC: 2/2: 35 / 14 (-3) 2/3: 33 / 23 (-6) 2/4: 33 / 26 (-4) 2/5: 31 * so far

I'm with you guys. This way of ranking makes zero sense to me. I saw Paul/Chesco do the same thing with his 20-day snow cover streak. Turning what was really tied for 36th place with 4 other years into the #22 longest streak, so it went from being something that would occur once every three years [probably even more frequent when accounting for missing data - not sure he actually has 132 years of full data] to much more significant. This gets even more ridiculous the further down the line you go as there are more and more tied values. So it's actually 64th longest sub-40 streak (of 157 years), which is barely above the median - meaning it should occur, on average, nearly every other year, maybe more like 2 out of every 5. Ignoring all the tied values catapults it into some sort of significant cold spell. 18th makes it sound like it's nearly 90th percentile (maybe 1 every 9 years or so).

Shit lol my bad. Comes in presidents day eve

In New England with a -NAO and frigid ocean temps .. I will sell high on any sustained torch . It will do everything in its power to thwart that given the antecedent elements this year

That little batch heading for Randleman looks pretty good. Should then go through Lee and parts of Moore County if it holds together.

Going to be a brutal weekend for those icefishing Deep Creek!

Oh For sure. Nobody said it would last forever. As Don said though, and this has been the take away for this winter so far, the warmth has been pushed at range by models, and it slowly but surely washes out, as we approach said timeframe. But January it did thaw out..no doubt. Other than that, it hasn’t. A few days would be a relief though.

A high wind watch with forecast highs barely cracking 20 degrees. This reminds me of 2013-14 but less snow, more cold.

Zero snow here...what's new?

It depends... Not sure why people can't "imagine" soaring to 60? We've pulled that off at this time of year virtually every time spanning the last 8 of 'em at one point or the other. Just because we've been colder this year - okay... there's value in recognizing trend, but along the entire time we've not had models with red thickness contours as far N as we're seeing in guidance now. Meanwhile, the background tendency to go above normal at least excuse imaginable, relative to leading indicators, hasn't gone anywhere just because we had a couple of cool months. It will correct very fast if given a reason. Snow pack would offset some - but it's not clear how much if a warm front were to ever pass through. Probably a lot of low fog over rapid melt, then the next day it goes up...

Nice little refresher hopefully.

I absolutely do not. Not with all the snowpack in the Eastern US and Lakes and the -NAO / blocking. No way it’s that long or that warm

I see a 4-7 day stretch of 45-65 potential

Mark Margavage @MeteoMark · 9m The Earth is currently in an ice age. It has a name: the Quaternary Glaciation. It began approximately 2.58 to 2.6 million years ago and continues to this day. Ice ages include cold, Glacial periods, and warm, interglacial periods. We happen to be living during an interglacial period of an ice age. #Climate #wxtwitter #wxX

You might hit -30 wind chill and -20 seems certain. I would think -25 to -30 is in the historic category

As others noted... weak system... 6 days away, a stronger more physically exerting moment in the atmosphere would probably show more comparative value among the three ens means, gfs/eps/geps than what we see here. Three different looks, what could go wrong?

Just gotta suit up in insulated layers of armor and go face directly into it for a moment . Big snow and big cold is what true winter weather adoration is all about. If you dislike the cold and express so then you are not if our ilk but are still permitted to post here

It is a misleading way to rank. I don't say that saying you're misleading, just when you have these come out ranked with this numbers it doesn't give a true indication of where a specific year, date, or sequence of days really stands historically.

No arguments of a bit of a mild up but I’m not buying 50’s/60’s like that

I personally believe we'll outperform based on the models, the trajectory of the storm and high ratios will be our friend on this one. However, the projected high temp of 2 degrees and winds pushing 50mph on Saturday is gonna make it a stay inside type of weekend . . .

Looks like it won't last long.

Ensembles probably aren't going to be best at handling mesoscale details.

Looks like 50s for at least a few days

11-12th is more coherent on the EPS, pops a few coastals