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Isolated at best.

Better than tracking endless days of sunshine, this is a weather forum after all lol

Havent had the AC on this entire month. Despite the warm days, all but 1 of the nights have dipped below 60, 2 of them below 50. Keep this going through October, but lets get some rain. Things are getting pretty crispy with the drier air.

All the warm spots from Philly to Corona, Queens are pretty uniform around 30 days reaching 90°. 90° days for 2025 so far Philly…30 Highstown…32 TEB…31 EWR…33 Harrison….30 Corona…27

Models should be interesting today. Out ahead of Erin you can clearly see the push from NE to SW coming off the Sarhan Dust Fields of Africa. This flow is trying to reassert itself as Erin moves generlly west. I would think that this fairly robust NE to SW motion of drier air will do two things keep Erin in check possibly even a period of weakening and force Erin more south or even southwest for a time as she heads generally westbound. I think this is what to watch now and until nearing the Leeward Islands over the next two days. The models may need to adjust to this possibility over time.

WB 0Z ensemble tracks.

62, beautiful sunrise. Must've had a sprinkle of rain overnight as my windshield has dried up water drops on it.

@jconsor lad posted this https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/tropical-storm-erin-forms-in-eastern

What happened mate

EPS is pretty wet Thursday

Another dewless hot summer day. Find water

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 416 AM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion -- * Humid with locally heavy thunderstorm downpours tonight and Wednesday * Mainly dry with above normal temperatures all weekend -- End Changed Discussion -- && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion -- Patches of lower clouds have started to form over the Lower Susq and Laurels. While not a widespread deck yet, it is expanding. Much of the area could have these clouds (which are currently 1500-2000ft aloft). That could make it more difficult for us to reach the NBM mean MaxTs. But, mixing should help break these clouds up for the most part. Without much confidence in the persistence of the clouds, we`ll hang close to guidance for the time being. Many of the CAMs pop taller cu and even isolated showers this afternoon, mainly S of UNV. They`ll get tallest over the ridges/high ground and only drift away slightly. Coverage of any showers is expected to be pretty sparse, and only worthy of a 20-30 PoP. -- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- All of the pop-up showers around this afternoon will die off around sunset. The advancing upper trough will really break down the ridge and drag a cold front into OH overnight. There will be some showers and possibly a thunderstorm get into the western zones before sunrise Wed. Lows tonight will be milder, especially in the Lower Susq where they should stay in the 70s. Pre-frontal weaknesses in the pressure field will allow storms to continue going during the morning hours as the front nears the CWA. The afternoon heating will increase the coverage of the storms with skinny but tall CAPE NW, and fatter CAPE as you move SE. 0-6km shear will be around 30kt for BFD, but only 20kt at UNV and MDT. These numbers aren`t enough to cause concerns high enough to the SPC outlooks, but a strong-er storm is possible. The high PWAT (1.7-2.0") and slow moving storms may make heavy downpours. That shouldn`t be much of a concern, either due to the very dry conditions of the past week plus. It`s been about two weeks since Happy Valley has had measurable rainfall. Lancaster and Bedford counties had very heavy rain ~10-12 days ago, but not much (if anything) since then. The front seems like it moves only slowly when it gets into Central PA, and should yield more showers and storms. Expect these to drag in the southern zones until the middle of Wed night. The dry air does make inroads across the north. -- End Changed Discussion --

Time to track the tropics

Maybe to you but others on Facebook, Twitter and other forums will continue.

I agree with you.

The EURO seasonal is showing classic La Niña/-IOD low frequency forcing over the eastern IO and Maritime Continent for OND:

65° / 60° cooled off a little bit more than I expected. Had to shut off the air conditioning during the night.

Looks like nothing to watch and track.

Big changes in the models last night today is important

Looks like the positioning is a little further south than modeled, looks like we watch and track.

Hard to believe with all the rain the last few months, that this is happening. https://www.abc27.com/news/multiple-dauphin-county-areas-announce-voluntary-water-restrictions/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_abc27_News&fbclid=IwY2xjawMH2ptleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHm4UIfmxNklzCR8u_6jK8My845BbUBFxPKbq01SDok7xSpiDaTtq3Zsa0Y68_aem_GTqxn89hJvPMaAoFaAyD_w

0Z Euro: still recurves well offshore the Conus but at 73W, which is significantly further W than the 69-70W of the prior 2 full runs.

Based on the gfs and euro ensembles there is a 5% chance that there could be an impact on southern New England which means I believe this will be wide east but maybe Atlantic Canada can’t be ruled out