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What a gorgeous morning. Feels like fall.

There will be WAR pumping by the developing TC behind Erin. That influence may be another pc that was not resolved at all until today’s model runs. Just another thing to monitor out of interest until Erin makes that hard right that’s being shown on the vast majority of guidance/ensemble members. If nothing else, we may see larger spread to the east/west wrt latitude in the western/slower vs eastern/faster tracks.

40F overnight. Even seeing some 39s locally.

I’ve been keeping an eye on the 75W line, and don’t think the cone has crossed it until now, even if just by a pixel. 8am advisory right around the corner.

Left the window fans on and the living room was down to 65°.

0.59” from yesterdays storms .

Very impressive satellite shots this morning! Lots of room for additional intensification next 12-24 hours before shear kicks in. We'll see how strong it can get but that is one impressive satellite presentation going on both in intensity and size.

Skunked on the rainfall again IMBY. On a brighter note it is really pleasant out there this morning. Temperature of 59, low humidity and a nice breeze. Very refreshing for a change!

Recon flying circles in the eye, pressure in the mid to upper 930s. Back up to around 120 kts

This could have some of the most substantial indirect impacts we've seen. It's already very large and could double by the time it nears Hatteras. Substantial coastal erosion, flooding, even TS impacts along the coast.

An update from yesterday's run for week of 8/25 fwiw.

GEFS ensemble puts SEMA in the picture. Run is pretty west and has jumped big time over the last day. This has trended west almost this entire time. I’d guess it is gonna just keep going west until it runs into NC and then goes north to scrape Cape Cod.

Some records from 1993 have been very difficult to beat. It still remains the only year where the warm spots had 100° heat from June through September. Was the only year with 9 days getting to 100°. But the 2020s are getting close to surpassing the 1990s for total 100° days with 4 years to go. The 2020s only need 3 more 100° days to set the new record. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ June Through September Maximum Temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 103 101 96 M 103 2021 103 97 99 91 103 2011 102 108 98 88 108 1994 102 99 95 92 102 1993 102 105 100 100 105 1952 102 98 92 94 102 1943 102 95 97 93 102 1988 101 101 99 86 101 1966 101 105 95 91 105 2024 100 99 100 87 100 1959 100 93 96 93 100 1953 100 99 102 105 105 1934 100 98 90 85 100 1923 100 99 92 90 100 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec 100° Days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1993 9 0 2 1949 8 0 3 2025 7 136 4 2022 6 0 - 1953 6 0 6 1988 5 0 - 1966 5 0 100° days 1990s….19 days 2020s…17 days 1940s….16 days 1950s….15 days 2010s….13 days 2000s…11 days 1980s….9 days 1960s….6 days 1970s….3 days

The forecast track really hasn't shifted all that much over the last few days when taking into consideration that it would have taken a few hundred miles in shift to bring direct impacts to the coast Edit: by direct impacts I mean getting into the core of the storm. The impacts of beach erosion will likely be moderate to severe, which is definitely impacted by any westward shifts)

I was leaving the jersey shore and getting gas in Brick when the storms rolled thru. Lightning struck directly across the street and everyone lost power….after 3 gallons

Didn't get much fanfare but yesterday was the hottest day of the month in Boston.

Not sure about Phoenix as a whole. But the heat island effect looks saturated at the Sky Harbor airport which isn't far from downtown. Actual and adjusted temperatures have warmed at the same rate since 1980. This means that the airport is warming at the same rate as regional sites outside of the Phoenix heat island. Before 1980 there is evidence of heat island warming at the airport (or some other site specific issue).

I just closed a couple.

Westward'ho. The track keeps ticking wnw. It's going to be close for obx i believe,she's making her own way tbh,a total monster of a storm currently.

49.4° 30s up yonder

Had 1.90" in the COCORAHS gauge this morning.

Down to 61F in E CT, only 0.05” here, not nearly enough. The good news is the air is off for most of the week!

45 outside, 50 at the kitchen island- I probably shouldn't have left all the windows open last night