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Islip doesn’t get hard freezes this time of year down to 28° with strong enough winds off the ocean anyway. It usually occurs with offshore flow or radiational cooling. So it’s more a reflection of the lack of cold across North America this fall.

GFS is a nice way to load in the cold after Thanksgiving. Unfortunately, it’s a GFS op.

The big late-week system is now gone from the GFS. The southwest energy has been slowing while the energy moving along the Canada border has been speeding up and digging a bit more, so the wet cutter gets squashed.

The classic S-N moving overrunning event...the models even today underestimate those events here, especially from central LI westward though the Euro did well it was somewhat ignored in favor of the the NAM/GFS.

I'll take the under

True. It’s a getting close to winter month but not quite there yet.

How are the SSTs off the coast of Islip? Aren't they perpetually above normal? Islip might not be a good location to use as a metric anymore since they're tainted by the warm water.

Is this the same plunge of air he said was bullshit last week?

About a dozen of them stopped traffic on Route 1 at about 4 pm, busiest time.

Timing wise the first 32° in NYC usually occurs around a similar time of the first hard freeze of 28° at ISP and HPN. So those similar benchmarks for fall cold still haven’t been met at those locations either. The most noteworthy lack of cold is a little further inland at SMQ. They still haven’t reached 25° for their normally colder location which is currently 3rd latest since 1999.

2 inches at the house, close to 5 inches at the groomer barn, will be curious to see how much kokadjo got when we get there this afternoon, thinking maybe close to 7? Good for a groomer test.

What sucks for us is that it's warmer now. I'd rather have colder averages and take my chances with storm tracks.

Have I mentioned how much I hate wind?

So far, LaGuardia has had a 47 mph gust and Newark has had a 45 mph gust.

Power outages increasing nw NJ now

Its only November. I dont know why people are worried about whats coming next month . This month was always supposed to be mild.

Can you add me as well for Thornton, NH, elev 1100', N43°52'33", W71°36'09". Thanks, Mark O

WB 12Z 12K NAM

Yeah that ridge is way too far west on the 06z GEFS and 00z EPS/GEPS. The GEPS has what seems like maybe a broader PV that is more south which is why its not as bad. The SER is likely underdone if the EPO ridge is going to be that far west

01-02 was largely positive too. The problem was more just a terrible Pacific or AK pattern in both winters than it was the PNA. The NAO/AO were also largely positive except late December 01

Allentown now 40 kt. White Plains 43 knot Mt Pocono 45 knot.

? Everyone has besides the heat island

Worcester, PA. Gust to 35. Power off briefly, but back on now.

It’s all proportional since numerous stations outside the heat island haven’t had their first hard freeze yet. So more a lack of cold air this fall. The strong winds have made it seem colder than it has actually been.

TOR warnings this year. Check out those hotspots in southern Illinois and Indiana!