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I just think this is so interesting - I've talked before about ENSO subsurface trends, and how it correlates with the N. Hemisphere pattern more than ENSO SSTs, OLR, 850mb winds, etc. Now, we are currently getting a healthy Kelvin wave that has changed the central-ENSO-subsurface in a few weeks from -1c to about +2-3c. Now, we have a strong +AO - about as strong as it's going to get at this time of the year. I rolled that forward to the following Winter, and got an El Nino-like pattern of a warm December, followed by a cold February What's more - the STJ pattern currently projected looks like El Nino for the next 3-4 weeks All this while a strong Kelvin Wave is warming the central-ENSO-subsurface in now-time. I've said before that the effects of such a happening are immediate - see how these El Nino variables are happening around this coherent wave?

Strong +AO for the next 2 weeks should keep Arctic Summer Ice melt relatively below normal to start the season, compared to the last 15 years. Lots of cold 500mb anomalies over the Arctic circle.

Precip plot for this past storm clearly shows the mesoscale "thingee" track over sern MA. Mesolows are notorious for enhancing rainfall. Broad rotation increases updraft strength and low-level convergence locally. The mesolow also explains the unusually high LTG density for a Nor'easter, and also the fact given it is late May, climo says there is just more convective instability around in the mean. What was amazing is the apparently the HRRR caught on to this feature 24 hr before, showing an enhanced swath of R++ S Coast of MA to BOS. Last time there was this much LTG in a Nor'easter here I think was Oct 2014. Need to check my archives on that when I get home. CoastalWx may be able to pinpoint this one!

I love Randy and i never ever thought he was an Anti-Semite. The rest of those pigs in OT unfortunately are. What can you do when you have the dregs of society all in one place. Life goes on and we just have to live with those pigs in OT. Glad you’re back on the weather side, you have so much to add.

I moved to Silver Spring MD in 2020 for a job after living most of my life in Woburn MA. The avg temp yearly in DCA is 6 F higher than BOS, and the DPs are relentless in the summer, esp along Chesapeake Bay where they get to 80 F often. My first two summers here, I was sweating a lot, but by the third summer, it was not nearly as bad. Point I am making is that the body adapts to warmer (or colder) temps in a relatively short period time w/ no ill effects. But that nothing to to what happens in the Middle East along the Persian Gulf, specifically Qehsm Island, Iran. Dew points every summer get into the 90s, and typically in August it really maxes out. Two years ago, it was 100/97 around sunrise one day and last year the same. The METAR (OIKQ) reports I have checked over time, and the temp/dp are valid based on the wind direction, SSTs, and other factors, such as FG present or not. Population of the island is 150k, and many do not have AC. Yet they do just fine or at least can handle it. So it makes what we experience in the U.S. "easy" by comparison!

That was a great summer

Scott needs to pick one!

May 9-10, 1977. Not all elevation either. 9.5" BED and 7" PVD. The 500 mb evolution was extraordinary. Giant 500 5-contour cut-off over the NEUS. Sfc low 990 mb.

Salvaged the day in Chester but dealt with numerous showers that rotated thru. Nothing a good backyard fire couldn’t fix. Down to 48.

July 2014 was the GOAT

47 attm here. Tonight, Sun, Mon all get into the 40s before we warm here

Had great seats right behind home plate at Fenway Park this evening. Excellent pitchers duel. The O’s have won the last 8 games I’ve attended. Tomorrow I will be in the first row behind home, hoping to keep the winning streak going.

Proud dad here. Look at that form. Leg could be a little straighter but not bad for an 11 year old. If you zoom in, you can see the ball in glove just before the runner hits the base

57 here currently after a high of 68. Perfect day imo. The wind is a nitpick. Felt great outside.

Exactly...that is what I have been saying. This is what I point out when Chris tries to explain that past -NAO/+PNA was more successful...they were -WPO.

All this stuff about the "Pacific firehose near Japan" is linked to the WPO, and positive phase of that index.

Indeed. Look at how weak the SPV was during the 2nd half of winter of 2009-10:

Why would I want a day like this in July?

I’ve already installed for summer 2026.

I didn't have a drop of rain yesterday.

Any idea of when we should install?

Yep...left that out.

meh... highs close to normal and mins normal to slightly above normal.. rinse repeat

I took a cursory look back and couldn't find a stretch that has been as consistently strongly positive as it has been since 2017.