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Awesome shots.

Really not that bad, if correct. I thought the whole USA would be red with a super nino

Maybe we'll break our hurricane drought with this system

The thread for the Gulf tropical threat has been started:

just 10-15 short days away on an OP model

3-4 cools off to neutral by next June on CFS. Are you saying el nino will continue into 27-28? Or something like 83-84 with a weak Nina?

Oh man we're going to see a hypercane season once El Nino breaks

Exactly so it's not trolling to say it will be a warm, mostly snow free winter.

The Notch did not disappoint yesterday. No issues on Kinsman Ridge Trail, very little traffic on trail. Not crowded at all and plenty of parking. Can’t speak to the chaos over at Artist Bluff…

let's win one more!!

It's official now Caps fans... Last rodeo for Ovie https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2026/10/alex-ovechkin-to-retire-from-nhl-after-2026-27-season.html#ref=home

Yep, utter bullshit again

Yeah new Euro data today is warmer and wet all 3 winter months

And it did come in... 5.683m km², a 1.008m increase in the last two weeks Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

We'll never know...take methuen for example ...the west side is colder than the east side. That is especially true closer to Pelham. It is not unusual for that part of the city to receive more snowfall especially in "mixed" storms..

I don’t know how WW does this for a living it took like 10 entire minutes to copy and paste the images

Without even looking, I'll assume it's a bit warmer and drier, and that ridge has continued to edge southward.

We’re almost certainly heading for the most E based Nino on record for good or for bad. The SE ridge should be held back bigly, which would be really good from my perspective.

extended still looking mild/nino-ish

Yea, believe me, I don't trust precise measurements from back then....no argument at all. I get your point.

October 5 1963: A heat wave hits part of Minnesota with highs of 98 at Beardsley, 96 at Madison, and 94 at Elbow Lake. For Monday, October 5, 2026 1638 - The journal of John Winthrop recorded that a mighty tempest struck eastern New England. This second severe hurricane in three years blew down many trees in mile long tracks. (David Ludlum) 1786 - The famous "Pumpkin Flood" occurred on the Delaware and Susquehanna Rivers. Harrisburg PA reported a river stage of twenty-two feet. The heavy rains culminated a wet season. (David Ludlum) 1917 - The temperature at Sentinel, AZ, soared to 116 degrees to establish an October record for the nation. (The Weather Channel) 1972 - Heavy rains, mostly the remnants of Tropical Storm Joanne, fell across much of Arizona. It was believed to be the first time in Arizona weather history that a tropical storm entered the state with its circulation still intact. The center was over Flagstaff early on the 7th. (3rd-7th) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - It was another day of scorching heat for the southwestern U.S. Afternoon highs of 102 degrees in Downtown San Francisco, and 104 degrees at Monterrey, established all-time records. The high of 101 degrees at San Jose was a record for October. Sacramento tied their record for October for the third time in the month, with a reading of 102 degrees. The high for the nation was 111 degrees at San Luis Obispo and Palm Springs. Twenty cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Knoxville TN with a reading of 34 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thirteen cities in the central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Duluth MN with a reading of 21 degrees. Goodland KS reported an afternoon high of 39 degrees. Showers over Upper Michigan produced an inch of snow at Marquette. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms associated with Tropical Storm Raymond deluged southeastern Arizona with heavy rain. Up to four and a half inches of rain was reported north of Wilcox. Three- fourths of the streets in the town of Wilcox were left under eighteen inches of water, and damage exceeded a million dollars. Evening thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. Thunderstorms produced high winds which gusted to 80 mph at White Deer TX, and resulted in one death at Pocasset OK. Thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail at Pampa TX and Lefors TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 5 Mon Child Health Day 5 Mon National Get Funky Day 5 Mon National Do Something Nice Day 5 Mon World Habitat Day 5 Mon World Architecture Day 5 Mon World Teachers’ Day 5 Mon National Above the Bus Day 5 Mon National Apple Betty Day 5 Mon National Be Nice Day 5 Mon National Kiss a Wrestler Day 5 Mon National Military Podcast Day 5 Mon National Rhode Island Day 5 Mon World Meningitis Day

ECMWF October Nino plumes adjusted upward in Nino 1&2 and Nino 3, stayed consistent from the previous month in Nino 3.4, and lowered the forecast for Nino 4.

Monthly temp and precip care of bncho in MA forum.

Given that this might be a late season sprawling system, definitely a good chance this is a moisture laden system. Resharing here.