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It's all good. The winter lovers have been shortchanged the past few years. Guess it's my turn.

About 5 years ago during this period, I ken 5 or more days of clear sunny skies in a row; unheard of even during summer months here. Not even 2012 had that kind of streak I'm aware of. We had a couple good days, now back to grunge.

A pretty nice day on tap across the area before shower chances begin to increase late tonight. Of course, the weekend looks have some rain at times. Although, not a complete wash out with the best chances of rain late tonight through Sunday morning. Rain chances to lessen by Monday night but ramp up again by midweek. Does anyone remember those drought concerns?

A pretty nice day on tap across the area before shower chances begin to increase late tonight. Of course, the weekend looks have some rain at times. Although, not a complete wash out with the best chances of rain late tonight through Sunday morning. Rain chances to lessen by Monday night but ramp up again by midweek. Does anyone remember those drought concerns?

Going to be a long crappy Father's Day weekend for many

one day we will get a power grid collapsing derecho followed by two weeks of 90+

i just want the snow bunnies to suffer

We have deep summer well into October.

And the most humid month awaits!

Low of 69. Boat day.

I'm about 5 miles inland here...90 degree days are actually somewhat rare compared to nearby places like Danbury White Plains or Newark given the seabreeze

From watching this tool this spring so far - it seems like it way overdoes things - I'm not even sure it works on the same percentages as SPC...so take those maps with a grain (or a handful) of salt. I've been using it more of a "first look" at which days to look at closer.

45%... impressive indeed

Saturday looks like shite, maybe Sunday can be somewhat salvaged - But we can do a lot better on Father's Day.

i actually suggest it is useful to do that - not just a bias evidence. i was just smirking that we've been low-balling if not failing heat since last november really. i've actually been seeing evidence of winter 'structure' to the super synoptic behavior, just doing so at 30 to 40 dm higher. weirdly long wave lengths and useful pna prognostics is not very summer like, so we get what we get from that. try to spare the long winded digression ( no pun intended) but the fast flow associated with blazing equatorial and sub-equatorial heights would be the most suspect factor in keeping the jet alive due to +d(gz) at mid and upper latitudes... anyway, in deference to that being the case ... i believe these odd-ball cold lobes in ontario like these long range gfs have some principle value to them. i mean they're not going to be right per se, just in concept in other words. that's an important heat signal in that ~19th + time range out there but we'll see.

Records: Highs: EWR: 99 (2017) NYC: 96 (1961) LGA: 101 (2017) JFK: 95 (1983) Lows: EWR: 51 (1982) NYC: 51 (1953) LGA: 51 (1982) JFK: 51 (1980) Historical: 1889 - Forest fires in northern Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota were in the process of destroying millions of dollars of board feet of timber. (David Ludlum) 1907 - The temperature at Tamarack, CA, dipped to 2 degrees above zero, the lowest reading of record for June for the U.S. The high that day was 30 degrees. Tamarack received 42 inches of snow between the 10th and the 13th. On the 13th the snow depth was 130 inches. (The Weather Channel) 1955: Water from the Spring Mountains swept down on Las Vegas, NV after a violent thunderstorm of rain and hail, virtually isolating the City, flooding hundreds of homes and stores and causing an untold amount in property damage. Residents of the Twin Lakes Subdivision reported that a four-foot wall of water came down from the slope of Mt. Charleston. Hardest hit was the Brentwood Park Tract, where large stocks of lumber, stacked for construction on new homes, were washed away by the flood, and littered the Municipal Golf Course and Twin Lakes Subdivision. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1956: Boston, Massachusetts recorded peak gust of 84 mph gusts during a thunderstorm. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1967: Three separate lines of thunderstorms developed and raced across eastern South Dakota. The storms dumped up to 5 inches of rain and hail the size of golf balls was common. Winds gusted to 71 mph in the Aberdeen area resulting in some damage. Crop damage was 100% in some areas in the northeast due to the relentless hail and flooding rains. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1968: A violent F5 tornado killed 9 people at Tracy, MN. Over 110 homes were destroyed, while a steel I-beam was reportedly carried for 2 miles on a piece of roof. Two farms hit by this tornado were also hit by a violent F4 tornado on 6/24/1924.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1969: 10 inches of snow fell in Deerfield, SD as an unusual late season storm covered parts of South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana and Nebraska. Five inches of snow was measured at Great Falls, MT. The low temperature at Billings, MT fell to 32°, their latest freeze on record. The temperature also fell to 32° the previous day; both tying a record low for the month of June. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1976: A deadly tornado moved across parts of the southwestern Chicago, IL suburbs killing two people and injuring 23 others. The tornado, with winds over 200 mph moved from Lemont to Downers Grove causing $13 million dollars in damage when 89 homes were destroyed and another 90 were damaged. The tornado passed over the Argonne National Laboratory, peeling part of a roof off the building housing a nuclear reactor. The tornadoes movement was rather erratic moving southeast the north and finally turning northwest. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1984 - Severe thunderstorms struck Denver deluging the city with five inches of rain, and leaving up to six feet of water in some places. Softball size hail smashed windshields and ripped through metal cars. Snow plows had to be called out. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Fifteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including International Falls, MN, with a reading of 92 degrees. Mason City IA and Waterloo IA reported record highs of 100 degrees. Thunderstorms in the northeastern U.S. produced golf ball size hail around Hamilton Square NJ, along with high winds which tore the roof off a hospital causing a million dollars damage. Averill Park NY was deluged with 1.64 inches of rain in fifteen minutes. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Afternoon thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern and Central Plains Region. Forrest NM was deluged with 5.5 inches of rain in ninety minutes. Temperatures soared into the 90s across much of the eastern half of the nation, including New England. Northern Illinois reported a record twenty straight days of dry weather. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Southern Plains Region to the Carolinas during the day and night, and continued to drench parts of Texas and Oklahoma with heavy rain. Oklahoma City reported 13.41 inches of rain for the first thirteen days of the month, and Fort Worth TX reported 29.56 inches for the year, a total more than 13 inches above normal. Severe drought continued to rage across South Texas. (The National Weather Summary) 1991: Lightning struck a tree at the U.S. Open Golf Tournament being held at Chaska, MN. One spectator was killed, and six others were injured. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1993: Four inches of rain fell in one hour on Lenox, IA as the Great Mississippi Flood of 1993 was beginning. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1994: A series of violent thunderstorms roared across parts of western and central New York. The thunderstorm winds downed trees and power lines. A tornado touched down in the town of Freedom. Damage was intermittent along the mile long path, with only tree damage for the first 3/4 mile. Over its last quarter mile the tornado destroyed a 25 x 25 foot garage. The tornado then struck the Pleasantview Mobile Home Park. A roof which was blown off one mobile home penetrated the wall of another home about 200 feet away. Two other mobile homes were lifted and moved off their foundations. The thunderstorms dropped between two and four inches of rain which produced flash flooding. One hundred basements were flooded in Jamestown. Damage from flash flooding was extensive in Allegany State Park in Cattaraugus County. Two recreational bridges collapsed and other major bridges were undermined. Beaches were damaged extensively and roads were washed out. In one instance, the blacktop from one road was carried over 20 feet. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2002: As thunderstorms roared through Ponca City, OK with lots of large hail and wall clouds, lightning caused a fire at a Conoco refinery. The news immediately sent gasoline futures higher by 50 points. The refinery was back on line quickly, but gasoline prices rose a few extra cents in time for the Fourth of July Holiday. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2005: Low pressure, the remnants of Hurricane Arlene, moved northeast across the Great Lakes. The bands of showers and thunderstorms produced damage across parts of the Niagara Frontier and Finger Lakes. Heavy rains produced flash flooding in Livingston County, an area which received heavy rains on several consecutive days. The strong winds downed trees and limbs in Le Roy, Stafford, Mendon, Livonia, Lockport, Kendall, and Clarkson. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

the worst

The NCAR AI convective page is highlighting some impressive severe potential next Thursday...honestly very impressed with how robust it is this far out...(link below) https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ

74 / 53 breaks in the clouds for now. Cooler today highs in the low 80s with enough sun in the warmest areas. Clouds arriving on schedule for the weekend with a cloud filled cool onshore flow. Highs near or below 70 Saturday / Sunday and while the brunt of ht heaviest rain will stay south with the front still 0.5 - 1.00 in the highest places mainly south. Mon / Tuesday not much better with hung up front lingering , 70s and chance of rain/ showers any sun shine will get us mid 70s or near 80. Clearing out later on Tuesday and setting up a much warmer to hotter close to the week as we enter into a much warmer period that transitions to hotter with western heat building north and east by the 20th and beyond. Still could feature frequent storms chances around the rim of the ridge but hotter finish to the month continues to be focussed 6/20 - beyond. 6/13 : near 80 clouds increase 6/14 - 6/17 : Judy Collins clouds got in the way - cool - rain / heaviest stays south 0.5 or + 6/18 - 6/19 : Warmer / drier near / slightly above normal 6/20 - beyond : Ridge pushes higher heights and heats builds into the east. - Hotter / still wet

Picked up .52 yesterday and 1.54 since midnight. Looks like a wet 4 or 5 days coming up.

meanwhile, that's a hot signal between the 19th and 25th. all the operational models are coherently ejecting/repositioning +2+ standard deviation height anomalies closer to 90 w, well teleconnected with the major index modes in that time range. trend of verification low-balling the original warm signals, if not fail, has been observable - since last november that's been going on, actually. interesting subplot. we'll see if this one has legs.

It's been a COC week with fans house is perfect

6z Euro .5 .6 it is usually right day before

Yeah, I am near the CT Shoreline and get great sea breezes. Yesterday was my warmest day of the season so far at 89° with more westerly flow that we have been getting recently. Only had 9 days reach 90° last year. There is also better radiational cooling here than I used to get back on the LI South Shore.

10 more days the GFS will start pimping seasonal change on every D10 solution ... it can't wait to get past the solstice every year and then it thinks it's October 15