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I'm over 50" for the first time since I moved back in 2018. I'm loving it.

The bias/variance trade-off in ML is probably one of the most important things anyone can learn when building models. I imagine it’s even more of a factor as model resolution improves and training sets get larger. Would be an interesting topic to explore.

This could go back to meh, and the GFS just had a pretty ugly loss in trying to get snow into SNE tonight, but you can kind of see the signal grow for something minor across guidance. Need Euro to get back on board.

It’s like we’re holding hands , just walking thru the snow

Kev, we've been agreeing a lot this winter. It feels...good.

Could the dry pattern finally be breaking?

45 / 19 40s today / Friday, 50s on Saturday. Down the roller coaster starting Sunday and through next Friday before moderation to perhaps a stronger warm up similar to the Jan 6 - Jan 14. Tracking risks Mon - Wed or perhaps even Sunday.

Yes, take the one that's actually showing up on the models over us at shorter range. Much like the "event" the models had for tonight/Friday--they can go poof fast.

Where's my 3" of snow the GFS was forecasting 24 hours ago?

Winter of yore!

it’s still february.

Would rather 3-6 Sunday

this event is not set in stone yet 4 days out - the main player in this event is the HP to the north if that is weaker than progged and starts moving east or north the precip shield will be further north and Tuesday night looks like an icing event here

Started a thread for Sunday. Thinking this could trend to an advisory event, 12z GFS notwithstanding.

Beat me once more - only 0.8" here, 40:1 from little feathers.

Only worry is will it accumulate well on roads after 45 and sun Saturday

42 here

wind direction in NJ will determine the high temps - even if any east wind develops along the coast in NJ there will be a wide range of temps

The guidance has shown an increasing signal for another brief period of snow in this fast flow pattern, this time on Sunday. Today's GFS was the most robust yet. This looks well timed with an intrusion of cold from Canada. Could we be trending toward an advisory level event? Discuss

hair dryer

It really dampens the wave around 90-96 hours. It doesn't eject enough energy, most of it hangs back, the wave dies with no mid and upper level support at all as it slides east.

So uhh…winter grades? Or we still waiting?

Couple of cherrypicked comments, last addressed first: I thought the OV blizzard had pressure down close to 950 mb, the lowest on record for a non-tropical storm in the eastern US. 957 would tie CAR's mark in the 2/2/76 southeast gale. 1978 appears to have a significantly larger footprint. PHL had 14.1" and NYC 17.7", in the same range as 2/26 though some NNJ points did get a lot more in 2026. To the north, the Farmington (Maine) co-op recorded 22.0" from the 1978 storm. That co-op ended reports in 2022 but a cocorahs observer had 0.5" in the recent blizzard and my site 6 miles to the east of there had only 0.2".

it's all for fun, i'm consistent though i never miss a day of forecast!

You can have this one. I'll take the one the first week of April. Lol