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It's officially cat space heater season. The best season!

Interesting. The much larger Great Lakes have dropped some but not to that extent. Obviously takes a lot more time for levels to change due to the total mass and large drainage basin. Looking at Huron-Michigan (technically a single lake system), the current value is the lowest for September since 2014, although from 1999 through 2014, every September was lower than the present. Conversely from 1967 through 1998, every September had a higher lake level than present with the exception of September 1990, which was 0.04 meters lower than this year. I suspect the final value for September will be as low or lower than that reading as the lake should continue dropping [especially if the current forecasts hold]. It looks like the well-known 1988 drought likely led to that brief period of low waters during an otherwise pluvial period. The Great Lakes almost always drop this time of the year, with annual minimum heights typically occurring in late winter and maximum heights in late summer. If it stays dry, that'll likely occur even quicker than climo averages.

I remember that cold blast. I was supposed to fly to Greece on the 2nd but there was engine trouble on my plane and I had to leave the next day instead. Because of that I was able to catch that intense CAA and experience lows in the mid 50s the next morning when I would have otherwise missed them.

Has the Holden storm from Saturday been EF rated yet?

dialed in

December snowfall is I think the stat best correlated with overall snow for the winter in nyc. It's very rare to get a snowy December and have the rest of the winter be a dud (has this ever happened ?), and also rare to have a snow free December result in an above average winter (maybe only 15-16?).

Yeah, this drought has been crazy. Looks like the Mississippi River will be seeing extremely low levels for a fourth consecutive fall: The Mississippi River is Set to Fall to Severe Levels for the Fourth Year in a Row I know the gauge at Memphis had three of its 4 lowest gauge readings in the last 3 years. Last year reached at least -10.41 feet in early November, but this chart was never updated. Crazy to just be blowing out the 1988 & 2012 droughts ever single year with hardly a peep? I'm sure dredging/channel deepening is aiding these very low gauge heights (i.e., the same volume of water may pass with a lower river level) but still..

Lake Winni nearing it’s lowest level in 40+ years for this time of year.

i can't wait to lowpost in january when we barely get to freezing

the overnight low was 41 which explains why I had a cat draped over me in the early morning hours.

Yeah. The forecast for next week is going downhill. It's hard for this area to stay pleasant for more than a week.

SE continues to win. .12 total here.

Yeah, no end in sight either. Only another 0.10" so far in September, with little precipitation expected over the next two weeks. Only "abnormally dry" though according to NOAA.

I was happy to get the PNA mismatch potential last October from the early MJO indicator back in October which was a key part of the seasonal 500 mb pattern. Then the under 4” snow last December around NYC signaled another below average snowfall season. I tend to score long range seasonal forecasts like how the batting average is regarded in baseball. All you need to have a shot at the batting title in any given year is to get a hit only around 33% of the time. So if you get at least 1 aspect of the 3 key elements including 500mb pattern, P-types and amounts with the storm track, and the temperatures correct then I will consider it a good showing from seasonal outlook.

Low of 43 here this morning.

Wanna see something even MORE fun?

Fitting since this weather is similar to our winters now.

2.05" in the stratus from the weekend.

The record ridge and drought in Canada generated strong high pressure and low dewpoints. This was followed up by the record trough over the Western Great Lakes ago. These very cold early season temperatures are actually being driven by the minimums allowing ideal early fall radiational cooling. We should continue with the comfortable early fall temperatures here right into mid-September as Canadian high pressure dominates. But much the CONUS is experiencing expanding drought conditions. So we could see a drought feedback warm up beginning to west while we enjoy the great early fall weather here. Unfortunately, the reliable models only go out 15 days. So the pattern from late September into October will depend on the pattern evolution. If we start getting more high pressure to our SW, then that drought feedback warmth could arrive here later September into October. Statistically we don’t see much 90° heat here at the warm spots like Newark that late in the season. We haven’t seen any 90° heat at these locations after September 20th since 2017 and 2019. But you never know if this will be the first 2020s year to pull it off. Especially if the winds can turn more SW. The big theme here in recent years has been record 80s warmth right into late October and early November like last year.

45° for the low here. Love this weather

10/10 out there. Only picked up 0.4" this weekend but that's enough to keep the grass growing and prevent more burnout for a couple days. Long range, CPC has us in normal to slightly above normal precip after the 15th... we'll see

Snow plows are out in NYC. Winter is coming!

Can definitely see that immediate, incredible impacts of that sensor change at FFC, which occurred on July 31, 2024. Based on this data, some locations may have cooled as much as 3.5 or 4F with the new sensors, but perhaps the aspiration was broken at the FFC site. They also changed (or are in the process of changing) the aspiration and solar radiation shields. Still even low temperatures dropped precipitously compared to ATL. June 2024 FFC: 92.9/68.2 ATL: 91.1/71.8 July 2024 FFC: 92.4F/73.0 ATL: 90.7/74.0 August 2024 FFC: 90.2/67.3 ATL: 92.0/72.3 Wow! ATL was 2.0F above 1991-2020 in August 2024, while FFC was 1.1F below 1991-2020.