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Not only do I expect this to be rain IYBY I expect it to be mostly rain IMBY too. So not really a homer post. Dendrite's scenario from a few mins ago would be perfect here and hope he's right. But we've seen a steady march NW from the suppressed nonsense a few days ago. NAM IMO will confirm eventually and climo is on the side of elevated interior event.

32 this morning

finished the last mow/leaf cleanup about 30 seconds before the squall hit. Still need to drop the winterizer, might have to wait until tomorrow

Euro has been ass with this one. Hopefully it holds firm.

I don't understand why you would abandon the run up 21-0, with a running back as great as Barkley, unless he is truly hurt.

A weak p.o.s. is on the table imho. Without a stronger higher, the cold air will give up on the fight easier and we'll lose lift. So I'm not feeling locked in on any scenario at this point.

GFS ?? I will be shocked if the GFS wins anything. I hope you have been paying attention all fall. Its been amped with every system but we shall see if its really leading the way or just a figment of someone's imagination

We had one in December 2023 in Boston

Ukmet pretty shredded system still gives far nw 2-3” but it looks nothing like gfs or cmc.

Good afternoon Mountain Thread...new American Wx member here, just moved to NC mountains...or more correctly, the eastern edge between Chimney Rock and Asheville, very near the escarpment. Long time Am Wx lurker, going back to my days living in Northern VA, and reading the infamous Mid Alt sub forum. In fact, I still speak of a walk in the snow, ice, or just bone numbing cold, as a "Jebwalk"., as do some on this board...my two now adult children know this term, and like to check in on me when winter weather is present, and ask if a Jebwalk is on the agenda. In any event, having just moved from Souhtport, NC, I have enjoyed the "real" fall weather in Sep and Oct this year, and am now looking forward to "real" winter weather this winter. I am a bit too far east for NWFS, but occasionally I hope to see flizzards break containment...and otherwise looking fowward to potential winter storms that might bring accumulating snow to this elevation...

Pretty chilly 12z suite incoming so far. Triptofan shut me down last night…so I missed the torch! LOL

Lots and lots of very marginal systems on the guidance the last few days. Let’s get to Christmas with nothing

Color me shocked.

I would wager we see the GFS tone down a bit as we get closer. I also wouldn't be surprised if we saw some other guidance even trend towards the GFS, only for guidance to back down Sunday evening.

ready 2 b buried

Gfs tried the same scenario again on the 6th. Tblizz approved.

GEFS really juiced up

That’s a good take imo.

Unusable for this system....00z was almost a full whiff.

Well, hopefully Kevin, Will and Ray get in on it and this isn’t just a bear den CJ.

Compare it to 00z

GFS is the extreme outlier now. I think it caves quite a bit in the next couple runs and the euro ticks another hair NW. Then the consensus all ticks a little more NW toward go time. Ukie came north a bit, but it was near Bermuda.

12. UKIE kind of meh

Personally feel that'll be the trend in keeping with the season. How far, who knows. Still think we're all in the game, but odds do favor N & W like 80-90% of all snow chances around here.