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Man what a weenie run of GEFS , there are rough estimate 35% of members that are in the 8-12" range at 10:1 ratios for the SW third of the state

Upton snow maps shifted east with 5 pm updates

Fingers crossed that this Christmas will be the year that santawow will bring us a dark theme mode. I’ve been good, I promise !

I have found that the Euro coupled with the GEPS(Canadian ensemble) has been decent this winter. When the two are singing the same song...good thing. When the GFS starts to trend towards them...better thing. The GEM only goes out to 240, so I kind of use the GEPS to see where it might have gone if it went past 300 hours at the deterministic level. Both get to a pretty similar place. BTW, the ensembles have moved quite a lot over the past 48 hours. Right now(rightly or wrongly), I don't trust any model which breaks the NAO down too quickly. Unrelated, it just kind of seems like about the time the NAO makes its exit...the EPO/PNA is gonna pop. That has been a pattern for several winters. NE TN folks have generally not benefitted from this, but with the cold pool so strong...I have to think the cold doesn't get held up at the Plateau or even the Apps.

If the gfs holds i think watches expand for even eastern of Long Island tomorrow.

Gotta hope those northwest ticks stop right about now.

Surprised Eric webb would use that analog imo

For the kids who do play it might be a memorable fun game on the tail end of a snowstorm. It's all one can wish for in a game like this Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

As long as the windshield wipers are only 25 miles NE to SW once this settles out, we should be in a good spot

No reason to apologize. Safe travels.

He was too far south for that.

Some great trends on modeling for the past week or so....still a tough pattern to model. I like @John1122's analog discussion above about 1982. It was one of only two Tenn winters which I missed while living in winter purgatory - Orlando, Florida. I read the newspaper articles about the ice storm, and about Tennessee beating Alabama during the World's Fair. I will say that it got crazy cold during those winters in Orland and wiped out many orange groves that were never replanted.

lol Tenman

Will either team have enough bodies to play? Clemson has a monumental fuckton of injuries and opt-outs.

It def was it started to back off last 24 hours, this is a different set up, and euro is one bump NE away from looking the same.

In-laws leaving Friday morning instead of Saturday morning due to the storm...you call that a "win-win".

Actually wait maybe the Nam is trying to take a weak primary low to near Pittsburgh and then transfer its energy to a new low near the coast and develop and slow down / blocked.

Rapid drop from 53 at 3:45 to 43 at 5:45

The 18z GFS find the cold air mass. All...winter...long -> so far. It has almost 50 degree changes(colder) over the GLs. Trending quickly towards what the GEM has had for days. The 18z AIGFS is on board. Honestly, there are so many cold fronts modeled...I have no idea how many there are. Dec 29, Jan 2, Jan 5, Jan 8?.

Looking at the GEFS, although the precip shield expanded NE it was a touch colder with a better high position.

What screen name do you usually use ?

I believe if the aleutian ridge is morphed with the Alaskan ridge at some point, we should be in business for better opportunity at winter weather. Its just tough in the south lol

The individual Mets do what they are instructed to and it’s not them causing the problems. The institution of NOAA has created model systems with 300 different panels over a 2 day period it’s a self preserving methodology where they can’t be incorrect The noble government worker thing is debatable. Been through it before here with the defend the dealer sort of thing

I’d pump that 2-5” here that run . More to come tonight