All Activity

I think that dude is either in denial and just says "la la la can't hear you", or is just doing that to troll...been the habit pretty much since this tough stretch began. All we have to go is what's happened the last 9 (and likely 10) years. The reality is just what you stated. Now whether or not we get out of the PDO cycle and we can put together a better 10-year stretch remains to be seen...but at least for now this is where we at.

it reached 88 here, a good day aside from the off color sky lol

But why is it happening every year now Roger? Are there chemicals they could spray over the forest from a plane to cause fire suppression?

was the streak of 42 consecutive days of 100+ also broken Don?

12z Euro was a bit more robust at 850mb. Gets a good bit of rain into NC and points north. I think that much like Dexter, models could be playing catch up with this if there is a pocket of lighter shear available to the eventual low.

a bunch of the fires are nowhere near people

Yes, big win for GFS this week, but the EURO is trying to bring up a disturbance late Sunday into Monday now. Will add ensemble when it is out.

If there’s no threat to life or property… absolutely let it burn. It’ll be after our lifetimes when that forest burns again.

Signal is still kind of muddled but the 12z Euro brings a slug of rain into the DC area points east from whatever comes of the Atlantic lemon.

From the maps available at the link below, I looked at the 50 Jul-Aug-Sep maps for each season 1975-2024 and counted the days. It took ~2 hours to count it accurately, but it was well worth the time so I could figure out how statistically significant the 39% of MH hitting during phase 2 really is. There are 4,508 days Jul-Sep 1975-2024 excluding 1978, which for some reason is blank. I counted 749 of those 4,508 days (16.6%) to be when it was in phase 2 (outside or inside circle). I rounded that up to 17%. The 16.6% is exactly 1 in 6 days rather than 1 in 8 days. That’s because there’s been somewhat of a tendency for the MJO to be longer in phase 2 in July-Sept vs the average of the other 7 phases for whatever reason. But even so, 1/6 is nowhere close to 39% as it is only 43% of it. Thus, I consider this to be a pretty strong signal for phase 2 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Monitoring

The Euro and GEM have caved to the dry GFS for the end of the week. The GFS has been dry consistently while the Euro has been wet consistently. This is a big win for the GFS and a kick in the groin to the Euro.

What exactly would you like me to do? Lol I actually accepted the world is warming 2 decades ago just not a doomsdayer like you chump.What exactly is a boomer? Some one like me who worked full time while taking 18 plus credits and summer courses to get a degree to advance myself? Someone who worked 2 jobs or 70 to 90 hrs a week to support an ever growing family.? Someone who went to local board meetings to beg for local environmental change? I help raised 9 well rounded kids now 8 all who also work hard and are responsible inhabitants of the rock.

One +0.4F change after a strong el nino may not seem like a big difference, but each one adds up. In the last 40 years, there has been a temperature jump following (1) the 86-88 el nino, (2) the 97-98 el nino, (3) the 15-16 el nino, and (4) the 23-24 el nino. If the temperature jumped +0.4F each time, we're talking about a +1.6F change over 40 years. That's big. We may even have another strong el nino in 26-27 or 27-28, which could create another temperature jump. If that happens, then that's 3 temperature jumps in about a dozen years.

Is that where you and Diddy diddled?

Maybe not near enough to a body of water suitable for scooping. Fires are huge/remote and there ain’t that many planes. Might as well get used to the smoke. It’s probably the future or atleast foreseeable future.

Agree with this mostly—models are definitely consistent in showing this is worth watching and the steering pattern looks ripe, I just meant the final outcome is uncertain.

Most models are shifting the heaviest rain SE so we might only get an inch or 2.

Probably for the reason Brian mentioned. Let the natural forest burn now to make it more fire resilient in the future.

A certain someone in Baltimore keeps weenying any post that’s pessimistic about snowfall. Yet Baltimore has had 9 straight below normal and below 20” seasons and has averaged 9.7” of snow in the last 9 years. Btw the previous longest streak of below 20” winters in Baltimore was 7. But ya, it’s just cyclical and everything is fine. we are due for a big year and I’m fairly sure sometime soon we will get both a big storm and season, but we would need to get like 5 straight 30”+ seasons to even get back close to what used to be normal for the post 2016 period.

How many visits?

https://firesmoke.ca/forecasts/current/

its like a billion Ginx's ripped bongs simultaneously

wow is the smoke bad this afternoon..

They have the best firefighting aircraft and pilots in the world. Why arent we seeing Canadair CL-415 Super Scoopers making runs?

models are consistent with this being a threat though. Seems like too much ridging for it to escape OTS