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I always find snow lines interesting… like it was just cold enough 50 feet up the field to stick.

Heck yeah. We definitely take this look.

I mean that type of pattern just seems like the ordinary climatology for the coastal northeast (ie. only one month out of the three is consistently cold and snowy). Barring some anomalously cold and stormy periods in the little ice age, 1880s, 60s, 90s, late 2000-2010s, it's not historically typical in this part of the world for it to be real cold through the whole winter. At least according to Kocin and Unccelini, the characteristic of sporadic moderate (>4") to heavy (>10") snowstorms punctuated by periods of mild temperatures and dry ground is the norm. This doesn't have all that much to do with this post but I just wanted to point it out cus I'm tired of seeing people dissapointed by "remarkably unwintry" seasons and periods that aren't really all that remarkable considering larger climatologies. There are near 10-year stretches in the late 20s/early 30s, late 40s/early 50s, early 70s where the average annual snowfall across the northeast corridor from DC to Portland was hardly above 25". I've been reading accounts from the revolutionary war of the same "inch of snow transitioning to slush and cold rain" type weather in January that everyone complains about nowadays. This current period is a particularly severe bout, exacerbated by cc, but shouldn't be all that shocking. The NE corridor just isn't rly that cold.

Most realize November is not a winter month. Just one of those months many see there first flakes or get small measurable.

How’s it looking now?

I hope the Blue Jays win the WS.

Halloween decorations are now down. Christmas decorations will be put up this week.

Thank you!

Thanks. I had just seen that at https://cyclonicwx.com/climatology/ But that looks suspiciously too high as NHC has only 34.7: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2025&basin=atl

Just checked that site again and Melissa is up over 37 ACE!

Yes! That happens all the time . Like today is NW yet when you get in certain areas of yard leaves are blowing in opposite direction. Nothing is more triggering when you’re blowing leaves and they blow straight up in the air and over your head to an area you’ve just cleared

I do not like the fact that the Gulf of Alaska's ssta's have cooled considerably over the last month.

Oct: PHL: +2 (2.02) Easton: +1.9 (5.13) Somerville SMQ: +1.6 (1.88)

Followup: This was the 11/30/24 CANSIPS fcast for last winter, similar in much of the N Hem including even colder/coldest 1981-2010 anomalies in N Hem again centered over W Lakes: What verified? It did well in most of the Conus but winter verified to be NN vs 81-00 in W Lakes/upper MW. The coldest was to the W in W Dakotas/SE MT, where Cansips was much too warm. So, is it possible that the CANSIPS has a cold bias in the W Great Lakes? @donsutherland1@mitchnick@SnowGoose69 *Edit: corrected for 2 typos

It's something I'm watching. Some La Niñas have focused the coldest anomalies in the vicinity of the Great Lakes Region. Perhaps this will be the case. I'm hoping to see the ECMWF move in that direction when its new forecasts come out in a few days.

Absolutely take it. We are gonna get a thaw which lasts 3-4 weeks. Anytime we can grab 8 weeks of winter, we take it...even during our best winters IMBY. Plateau folks have longer stretches!

With our luck we get a 97-98 sequel rather than a 15-16.

We finally got the big winds but it was midnight

Its December depiction makes sense to me, not sure about Jan/Feb. The Feb anomaly does not look much like any recent Nina or neutral composite we've seen. It looks more like a raging progressive Pac jet type pattern. If that type of setup verified I think the SER would be much stronger in the east

This is an experiment. I personally don't like 2011-12 and won't be using it in my winter outlook to be posted in mid-November. 2021-2022 is the only one from that set that will be used in my thinking. I'm just testing an experimental approach aimed at statistically generating analog cases with no human input to see how it does.

These are day-to-day runs, but we take this, right?

Lake spinners today?

Do you have Easton PA and Somerville NJ?