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George BM, I'd like you to write us up a big rainmaker! Please. Only YOU know how to do this stuff well!

Dude has no clue

Yeah back edge and drastic drying taking place only 20 miles west of here. We typically get afternoon rains then clearing, then hazy hot and humid again tomorrow, even in October lol. Eked out about an inch. We got lucky, but many places 950 miles to the north got the jackpot with 8 inches of fresh rain. They are starting out the autumn right with torrential rain followed by a metric ton of El Nino aided snow. Forecasts claim 100 percent chance of rain in Austin tonight but I know that is nonsense. It's already drying out to the west and the system is speeding east like a runaway freight train. Maybe we'll get more rain later this month, maybe not. Just looked at my point and click. Don't particularly know what the Texan nws has been smoking lately, 100 percent rain tonight, 90 percent tomorrow? Naaaah. Hey Austin NWS office, gimme some of what you've been smoking! Damn that stuff must be epic!

Kevin I have been growing vegetables at least 30 years more than you. I was taught by the best

That best of season thing may have been just the very generous rain.

No argument here. It was straight up hot in the afternoon sun in my nhood. Nice evening though once the sun angle got low.

We had a lot of rain which must have helped. Weather was perfect for veggies.

It’s not actually crazy to think they last into the holiday season. Low sun angle hurts but it’s not a 0% chance

It’s not normal to be the best of the season. There ms been years when it’s done mid Septorcher

One question I have about this winter is how will the strong sunspots cycle impact a strong el nino?

Interesting link. Thanks. Will be interesting to see where this season ends up. I would take the over on 17.4 but hard pressed at the moment to see where that comes from. Still time to add ACE. Clock is ticking on getting a hurricane though.

There nothing abnormal about getting vegetables out of a garden on 10/1 in SNE.

I agree with most that a record strong RONI is likely at this point. But NOAA is ~0.4 cooler than this fwiw (low +2s). So, it it very likely won’t get nearly as warm as some models, like the BoA (still way up near +3.8) are showing. Regardless, the strongest anomalies are going to continue to be in 1+2 and 3. This is now the most E based on record by a good margin over 1997, and that’s looking to continue down the road.

Gross

I spent most of my life in PA/MD before moving here. Way too many memories of living in MD and it being 33 and rain. The issue here isn't rain/snow, but cloudy and dry vs. 10 miles away getting 2"/hr rates.

It's hard to believe it's been raining all day lol. Backedge is roaring though. Should clear out in 3 hours. Nebraska got most of our moisture lol.

that'll cost you $200 to get it to 80

I never pay attention to surface temp anomalies on a smoothed seasonal model. Just not realistic that a low res/LR tool can resolve something that localized. I only look at h5 to get a general idea of the big picture advertised pattern. Latter half of winter looks potentially decent as modeled. KU coming.

Beautiful! going to be a crappy winter regardless so might as well root for the highest possible

This was the middle of such a nice run of deep winter. What was it 2 straight solid weeks we didnt get above 30?

Just build a fog chiller for my fog machine (to keep the smoke dense and low). Setup the graveyard today outside. Just have to scatter some random bones around and Im good to run.

Maybe they will survive right into next spring?