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You can’t be that specific on snowfall this far out….or even close in lol There are a few things that look like good bets going into winter. @Bluewave usually uses MJO wave intensity come October, which I think seems to be a rather decent indicator. So far, the MJO has been following the tendency of the last several years of favoring phases 5-6-7

So on the snow front, what could be an example of us “finding a new way to fail” this year?

Factor this

I prefer mid 70’s and a severe hurricane but you don’t always get what you wish for

Beautiful sunny day on the shore with a steady NE breeze. Ocean is rough but warm. Hopefully, waves will calm down by Sunday.

Agreed, although this is a different pattern than we've seen most the summer. The lack of a strong four corners high this summer is the primary reason the monsoon has been lackluster around here, imo.

Sun trying to break thru the clouds finally, after 0.15 (eyeballing from window) of unforecasted light rain/drizzle fell all morning into early afternoon. Kept temps nice, currently 70.8/67.8 at 2:30 pm after being 67/68 all day in the rain.

A few wackos enjoy 50F and drizzle

Still a lot of SAL out in the central, and eastern Atlantic.

let's hold on to summer as long as we can before it's 50 and cloudy for 4 months

Could be a nice heat plume moving in after the 5-6 of September. Lets go. Just give me a warm first 3 weeks of September and then ACATT can violate me.

It’s bias or the KFS bias to add 5-8 degrees to any model run? Its ok to just say you think it’s wrong.

No balls. Make a call or not. Not this 75% chance. And for the record outside of NNE it looked like it could avg cool. Moregarbage.

wow guy named ineedsnow who would have thought you didn't like hot weather

Maybe but atleast HHH weather seems to be finished for the most part.. ill take 80s with dews in the 50s over 90/70 any day

i'm sure cracker barrel rebranded because of woke and not because marketers and focus groups determined it would be more profitable to expand beyond the centrum silver crowd

Factor in it’s bias and ensembles translates to 80’s

No one knows what this winter will be in August. Long range forecasts are crapshoots and have been wrong in the past several years. Just like every winter forecast i have seen so far is very cold and snowy for the east with the weak la Nina. All nonsense this far out. It takes skill but grain of salt

The Southwest Monsoon has been on fire this year with stronger than usual upwelling in the Arabian Sea. Combined with recent trades, we actually have a nice incipient -IOD pattern setting up, which should help boost our Nina into the winter months. This winter looking interesting from the standpoint of the Pacific pattern on the seasonals: Looks encouraging for increased cross-polar flow, PV favoring our hemisphere and a typical Nina gradient-pattern. This MSLP pattern is also pretty favorable for a follow-on reduction of the trades, which may line up nicely when the developing -IOD terminates: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/16/16/1520-0442_2003_016_2668_tsfmit_2.0.co_2.xml

Worst of the heat is surely over but we'll certainly get a warm or hot period-heck last year we had low to mid 80's in the first week of Nov-granted that was aided by dry conditions...

I’m not sure if it can get into the Caribbean as a coherent system, but if it can survive vorticity stretching over the next few days maybe it has a chance. This looks trickier than models suggest. If it survives.

Yep. Pretty unremarkable melt season weather-wise. Area and volume significantly lower, but not exceptional or anything. Beaufort took quite a long time to melt out this year, closer to 2013's melt season, and there's still an intact arm into the ESS -- whereas the CAB itself is actually record low on area. The easy to melt stuff is long gone and a transition towards Atlantic-side dominance may yet take some more time.

My inner Ji is saying, "Great, let's use up all the cold air now so we torch during winter." Seriously, every day, every week from here on out w/o running the AC is a victory!

mid to upper 70s on the 12z Euro for the first week of September.. we take!

Unless you think 80s aren't summer