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He, or or she, is the resurrection of snowman18, who was cloned several years ago into snowman19.

It was not that long ago that the temps on the weeklies showed it would be around the 10th when temps would start to go below average and the pattern would begin to be conducive for snow. If there is no tracking by mid month, I will be disappointed. Until then, patience is needed, and maybe we will get lucky with a small event before then....I am watching Sunday....

Maybe the cuts at the NWS nationwide is part of the reason the GFS is bipolar. Truly unbelievable how bad it’s gotten. I never thought the GEM would be scoring better than the GFS. Gracious next will be the JMA outperforming the GFS.

I've been complaining about lack of rain since spring. Unfortunately it's getting really bad in my parts. We are way under in precip for the year, and it looks to continue in the new year.

Bring back the old Mitch, i liked him SOOOO much more.

ORH has been slightly BN for snowfall in December but not by a lot. November was a goose egg though so seasonal is behind by a 2-3” more.

I get what you’re feeling @mitchnick, but more often than not since early August the trend has been the other way.

Said that a page back Mike…but ya, absolutely.

You're missing my point. As we get closer to the week(s) after 1/12, can we expect them to get warmer too? And why shouldn't we since the models were too warm since 12/1, being wrong going the other way is a death blow to prime winter. Again, I can't say what will happen, but I can say model performance this year gives me no confidence in any forecast past 5-7 days.

Wasn’t expecting this. I’m heading out to pick up my kiddo in Colrain and roads are coated up already.

eh the first week of January was always iffy...only a small part of the country(us) had BN temps....the rest was a blowtorch.

Many many mets have a warm bias

This is my problem they change a forecast 30 times before the day happens and say they are accurate.

Just to put a point on what I'm saying, look at the last 3 days from the weeklies for temps during the week of 1/5-1/12. Sunday's is on top, then yesterday, and today. So we get warmer as we approach the forecast period? That's no way to run a winter if you want snow. Not saying it's over or it won't happen ultimately, but I am saying my confidence in the models is essentially gone.

Pretty massive jump. Interesting at least… said earlier about 4-5 of the ens members had it.

Wttte

Nice snow showers here. The glare ice in the driveway has been beautifully coated and polished. It’s actually coming down pretty good so I’m anxious to see what the heavier bands in the streamer to my West do.

I didn’t say it was a lot of digital blue

With every operational model run, I'm doubting more and more the great pattern. The trough always ends up across the Pac NW, leading to a ridge somewhere in the east. Getting close to pulling the plug. The models were way too warm in December. Now when they're cold we should believe them as being correct?

That's how you make averages.

Oh my

Couple more bumps over the next day hopefully for this area

The PV always guaranteed to deliver!

one big difference between December and January weeklies is the precip anomolies. In December, they were brown or even dark red. In January they are normal or green.