All Activity

The forecast for the New England game now includes "snow likely."

Yup they bumped up esp. inland.

A little bit less WOR, a tad better Emass. Predecessor looking decent.

You start with mostly cloudy skies and cold, northwest flow for a day or two. Around mid afternoon on day three, warm air moves in aloft and starts precip as freezing rain. It then flips to steady, moderate snow overnight. Precipitation falls without the benefit of sunshine to melt it off overnight, and road crews were unable to put pretreatment down due to rain. The snow encapsulates power lines and trees overnight, leading to over 250,000 outages across the DC - Baltimore region. Gusty NW winds of around 20 mph occur after the storm exits around sunrise. Early sunshine fades behind a cirrus shield the next day as a potent clipper system dives south into Kentucky. An additional 4" - 8" of fluffy snow occurs during the afternoon and evening.

TAKE COVER (Virga)

Most of the guidance I've looked at has a 6-10ish type timeframe for the main swath. Some show a separate batch breaking out ahead of the morning slug sometime during the overnight hours, but early morning seems the best bet for seeing accumulating flakes.

Ya IF this storm even happens for us, it looks like paste, temps are borderline..

Reggie a tic juiced this cycle.

12z nam's doing that the 06z gfs left the conv alone and relies entirely on the synoptic q-g forcing not sure which is right

reggie was the only model that sniffed out the surprise 4-7" storm that just hit the detroit. i think it has some merit in this game. euro is garbage, gfs worse.

RGEM is warm here..rain ending as 1-2". woof NAM/ICON are the two models you'd want to be eastern outliers at least.

Yeah…the s/w was a little more neggy.

Reggie just wont quit It's the best of the bad models showing a hit of consequence.

The other thing I noticed is that some models are chasing convection. That might factor in too.

Tightened the gradient a bit by ern CT but looked like .25” for you or so.

Icon did improve but not at the surface

Satellite shows clearing skies to our west unfortunately, hopefully we can hold in as much cold air as we can ahead of the southwest winds. The temperature has been steadily climbing at my house, up to 28.6 degrees now

I don’t know, I thought Reggie looked okay. Definitely not like the NAM. ICON is a whiff but I thought it improved a bit

at work, did it spread wealth NW, or is it a scraper?

26 out with the sun trying to hang on. Clouds are coming in though. So what is this I hear of a possible snow storm tomorrow? Looked at the other thread and is it correct that we could get a decent amount tomorrow? Reason for asking is the kid who goes to school in PA starts her second semester on Monday. So either tomorrow or Sunday is her travel day back. We had already this morning decided on Sunday but looking at the other thread that may confirm our choice. As she is now driving herself back and forth we do not want any bad weather. And she takes 15 all the way up until she has to shoot West to Carlisle.

Icon has been a miss.

2-4 for NYC with slightly more to the and south from both events.

Yeah Reggie was decent here.

Just like it is in the opposite direction for warm fronts/tornadic supercells, with very rare exceptions.

Icon with same idea.