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I still want a sleet bomb storm with thunder.

This is valid too. This could quickly go from potentially historic snowfall to a crippling ice storm. Watching cautiously.

From the weather weenie handbook: The op Euro has been known to over amp phased systems in the midrange.

This reminds me of that time where I thought my girlfriend would love me for the rest of my life. Key word "thought".

You and me both. .

i blame myself. will i ever learn to stop getting invested in winter storms more than 48 hours out? i was always on the border of a serious ice storm and just a cold rain... but now... temps could soar into the 60s? lol. i'm no expert, but i think that could eat into ice accumulations.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2013860089803804790?s=46

0z EPS probability of >6” snowfall

Look at the isobars on that sumbitch!

I'm intrigued and definitely keeping an eye out for this more phase trend to hold. Won't shock me if it trends back to less phased and way south though. Lots of moving pieces to watch. Would be a huge win for subforum. I would be happy just getting a few inches to cover ground before arctic tundra sets in.

This definitely trended north

Im done for a while after this. If this doesn’t pan out this is the worst breakdown I’ve ever experienced in the weather world. I could understand this if it was 8 plus days out but this is within the window where we are supposed to be nailing this down and it shits on us. .

There's an old saying on these forums, the best snows are where you can smell the taint.

Psssst the euro op had more snow than the ensembles

Cant wait to be posting clown maps for that one this time next week only for it to end up shifting to Miami 3 days out. It can snow to the north or the south, but never the interior southeast anymore. Prove me wrong atmosphere.

CMC with a clipper three days post storm

Yea. There’s always a storm that somehow misses the upstate and wnc foothills. 4 years running.

That's actually fucking insane.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service New York NY 121 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-220630- Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex- Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland- Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk- Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 121 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Confidence is increasing in the potential for a significant winter storm to impact the area Sunday into Monday with accumulating snowfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. $$

WB EURO AI EPS

Or old school "coal oil" lamps always loved that smell when the power went out as a kid down here in the hills , especially in winter..

Historical these people are not prepared for what is about to hit them

0z EPS jumped ~150 north compared to 12z EPS mean QPF now 0.7-1" all of SNE