All Activity

"were saying how mostly the project is worked on by non-meteorologist, not even programmers with meteorology experience, mostly neural network engineers." That's a big caveat, and something that I think is lost in the translation often. Example in the general pix. One can educate themselves about the wx and claim, "I've observed and experienced all sorts of wx all my life!" But that does not make one an expert on the subject by default. It would be like saying, "I've known and driven cars most of my life!" but that does not make one an expert on cars! Knowing is not enough. You need to know how to *apply* the knowledge w/ insight and wisdom only acquired by deep interest and study of a given subject. Having a formal education is key b/c if provides a lot of the basics and shows how other sciences connect well w/ meteorology, as an example. You then take that formal education, and then apply it in job in the field, gaining experience and countless tidbits over time that round out thing nicely. You also learn all the slang/jargon and the little nuances/idiosyncrasies. The fine details count! Stuff that you can often use to call out posers/hustlers/AI-generated content from the real deal! Don't get me wrong, to be a wx expert, you do not need a full 4-year degree. The Internet changes all that and if you put your mind to it and have the passion, you can get all the info ever needed from the web! Plus, forums like this you get the details and nuances that round things out nicely, as I mentioned earlier. So circling around back to the main topic at hand, when people that are not experts in a given field do work on products/services for the same field, there are caveats, as I said. Programming a model but not understanding exactly what the model does for practical application is non-trivial, and can lead to things said about the model from such programmers not in-line w/ the fcst meteorology and its limits! They can get idealistic w/o regard to practically. AI models are still bound by fcst chaos theory and in their case, the number of historical cases they drawn upon, so that becomes an issue when you get rare or outlier events. "but I'm not sure that the specifics are really well understood by the weather community anyway." Good point. I think most only understand the basics from a bird's eye view., including myself. It is a learning curve, as w/ all new tech. Unfortunately, some put the wagon in front of the horse, getting way ahead of themselves simply for content (hype) or shill purposes AI as a concept is has long been ingrained in out culture from movies like The Terminator and The Matrix, making us wary, cautions, and fearful, but that's only Hollywood! That does not mean it is reality or how things actually work!

No. He and Roquan gotta go end of this year be it trade or free agency. OL can be fixed too; Jurgens, Vega, Rosengarten could be a pretty good start. Another LT (if Stanley's play is declining) and LG would have to be signed. Lamar gets extended...that will at least give more room to work for the next 2 years. These are not blow it up start over changes--soft rebuild/retool like this could improve things next season.

I find this a bit misleading in the larger pix. Of course a newer model is going to be pushed and pointed out more often -- b/c it is new! Makes for better news stories. Also, beware of cherry-picking. For any given fcst, you often can find a model (AI or otherwise) that did much better than the others. Par for the course. Just is it pointed out a lot in the MSM or not? It's like the ECMWF praise that was big after Sandy. Sure, it nailed far out a mega event, but the ECMWF overall skill perception was somewhat tainted by this very fact. It did not mean that the ECMWF was the GOAT and panacea for all out fcst woes going forward! I recall ppl using the ECMWF blindly for fcst solutions b/c it was the ECMWF! That's not good fcst science. One needs to see stats for all fcsts for the model, not just one that happens to get a lot of attention and had high sensible wx impact! That does not mean GDMI is useless or should not be praised, but let's not get carried away.

That structure is likely an artifact from precip in this case. Other analyses showed Champi had completed an ERC earlier and there was no concentric eyewalls or more than one wind max.

Odds are high that there have been at least 6 other STYs stronger than Tip. This short paper from 2004 notes 2, and there have been several since (Haiyan comes to mind). stronger.pdf

And the 2011 Snowpocalypse Kevin, was 4 days from now…which makes a whole hell of a lot of difference with regard to leave drop too. So that statement again, is ridiculous.

Yea, maybe you missed it…but I did say I stood corrected. I was assuming that Spokane was the typical Pacific Northwest…which was cool and moist and overcast. But I was wrong I guess. My mistake. And if they get as much snow as most of us…that’s not too shabby. Good for them.

Bro…your posts don’t make any fucking sense? I love ya…but you sound like you don’t live in SNE? Or haven’t lived here for any length of time. Foliage Color has been exceptional. Leaves are now falling like snow here. We’ve had at least 5 frosts, and two freezes. I mean, maybe you’re just trying to make conversation….and that’s cool. But if you’re serious, you sound like you’re f’n bombed! But maybe at 1000ft…it’s a whole different world from the rest of us?

Could be worse, like getting our water supply from Lake Meade.

High of 72 but a stiff ne breeze made it feel much cooler. So dry that the dust is really giving me sinus issues.

Not sure how applicable this sample is considering it uses 26 different el nino winters. Besides, I'm always skeptical of anything posted to social media which puts the highest above average snowfall along the most populous stretches of the northeast.

are you crazy dude???

NWS already declaring it Given the current forecast numbers, it appears MSP will finish this month as the 2nd warmest October on record.

I'm not sure it should be drier than 1997-98....stronger El Niño plus CC...I agree December will probably we warmer than 1997, but after that it's pretty iffy.

2001-2 was dry..doubt with all that southern branch moisture it would be a match

MPO doesn’t keep a snowfall record.

Why? 2001-02 was warmer than 1997-98. Who pays your heating bill? Most people will be celebrating a winter that warm. No I mean drier than 1997-98 not drier than 2001-02. But warmth on the level of 2001-02 which was a warmer winter than 1997-98.

Oaks seem always to be loaded. I remember at the height of the blizzard of 12/11-12,1960 the oak at the side of our house was loaded with brown dry leaves.

Was up in central PA this weekend (north of Harrisburg by about 30 miles). Lots of color, still some green, definitely peak foliage there over the next seven days. And totally stellar weather to see it all in.

I had 19” here and the oaks were still loaded post storm with partially green leaves.

I don't see why it should be drier....

Check your climo. They’re east of the mountains and don’t get much rain or snow but they do get both. About as much snow as Boston but a tad colder.