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So basically if we cant cool the western pac down say goodbye to snowy winters in the east?

Can't beat that! Enjoy! Now if only we could keep this rolling through December...

probably just showers as we don't really have any instability around.

A ton has to shift for 13-14 to be a good analog. Besides the anemic Atlantic tropical season, low arctic sea ice and the cold North Atlantic SSTA, I see very little matching up. No -IOD, as you pointed out the PDO is so far from a match it’s not funny, that was a Victoria mode (basically +PDO alignment) back in 2013, it was +QBO, solar/geomag was rising off of a solar minimum, no La Niña back then; cold-neutral, no -PMM. Since the PDO cooling over the last 2 weeks in the northwest PAC was brought up yesterday, yes it cooled, but it started cooling at over staggering +11F SST anomalies there and as has already been stated by @bluewave those record warm anomalies are very deep in the subsurface. Here is the latest OISST, look at how insanely warm the anomalies still are:

I can see in a practical sense, conversationally in an effort to convery how you feel the season will evolve, since most weather circles are privy with how each analog season behaved in terms of sensible weather. But as far as issuing a seasonal forecast, I agree 100%...my methodology is to use a composite and attempt to convey the element from each analog season that will be similar to the current season. This is important because one season may be a fantastic analog in one sense, but there are bound to be ways in which it is not..this harkens to what you were saying about the challenge in finding a replica season. Good luck-

A little late here, but I just added up what we got from that ferocious front (just crazy downpours/wind/thunder for about a half hour), plus rain that evening and next morning: Total is 1.27 inches, if my math is correct. That's pretty good, but it is forecast to be dry, sunny, nice actually, but for next seven days. So...in summary, it's still wicked dry around here. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast I knew it was drier a little to the North (old neighborhood--Braqttleboro), but anyway, too dry. Edit to add: Wow, way worse farther North. I hadn't seen the summary/graphic yet. Northeast Drought Summary On this week’s map, widespread degradations were made on the map including expansion of areas of drought in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. The most severe drought in the region is currently centered on areas of central Maine and northern portions of Vermont and New Hampshire. In these areas, numerous observing stations reported precipitation totals for the past three-month period that were in the top-5 driest on record including Barre, Vermont (-6.76-inch departure from normal; driest on record), Berlin, New Hampshire (-3.95 inches; driest on record), and Portland, Maine (-5.87 inches; 3rd driest on record), according to data from the Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC). Moreover, numerous streams and rivers across the region were reporting streamflows that are well below normal levels, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. For the week, much of the region was quite dry; however, some light rainfall accumulations (<2 inches) were observed across isolated areas New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont. Average temperatures were below normal across most of the region, especially in the southern extent, where temperatures were 8 to 12 degrees F below normal.

3k NAM pretty juicy tomorrow morning, thunderstorms?

1.42" of rain from stms last night. Much needed. 2.03" for the month (avg 3.53") so a good start.

Yes, the wind stays up on the hill a bit. I radiate very quickly after dark but at some point before dawn the wind creeps up

Mirrors impact on winter storms. As a blogger, I like it....only care to write about big fish.

6Z EURO AI: maybe around the 16th or 22nd we see some rain.

50 at my place. Late September looks above average. We all knew we would pay for this eventually right?

Low of 56 this morning

PSU accurately called 22-23 DOA in October of that year.

Crazy, I got to 54 degrees in Queens, only 3 degrees warmer than you

Just wanted to say, I am in the process of moving from downtown Brattleboro to Northampton (basically live in Northampton now). I always enjoyed up there seeing your OBS and stuff, the only other member who posted from that fair town. I lived there for 15 years (wow), from Boston, etc., now back in Mass., 40 miles down the road. I will still continue to go back and forth, so many connections in Bratt after living there so long, grew up going to Mount Snow, worked there a while back, Dad lived in West Marlboro and really like that town. It's sort of like a mini Northampton. I never post much but have been here since beginning of 2010, when it formed, was on, I think it was called EasternMassWx or similar, posting/reading from when I lived in Providence, Rhode Island ten years (2000 - 2010)...moved to Bratt in 2010. Man I feel old now...haha, not really. So...cheers!

6z euro and 12z 3k NAM backed way off rain for tomorrow except for the tidewater and coast

Forecasting a cold winter in the E US has at least short term value to the forecaster in that it sells clicks and likes and also is what even some pros are biased toward. That being said, I don’t know anything about met. Travis Roberts’ record and possible biases. Does anyone here have any info about that? Has he forecasted warm winters before? Whether or not he has would say a lot.

49.6° at my place. Wish I had time to sit outside and soak it in. Maybe soon we can time one of these fronts up for a weekend.

Dry as a bone for a while .

Going from the 2nd highest number of hours above a 70° dewpoint in July to the most hours below 60° in August made all the difference.

I don't understand the value in using a single season as an analog. Wouldn't the entire earth have to be exactly the same for the season to play out in the same way? Why don't these ppl just use an average?

50.8. New spot on this hill doesn’t radiate as well as the old house which was in a lower lying area.

Canaan hit 22.6 at some point early this morning.