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Isnt September a part of Summer?.Fall arrives the 3rd week of the month.

The main question of this thread is whether the adjustments to raw data are a) valid and b) essential. The deep dive on Coatesville upthread answered these tow questions for Coatesville with two resounding YESs. Here is the breakpoint analysis for Phoenixville 1E. It also demonstrates that the adjustments done to the raw data are a) valid and b) absolutely necessary. Note that all of the aerials from 1927 forward show changes at the site--roughly every ten years between aerials--so there is going to be microsite changes. One has to wonder, for all of the time some folks have put into explaining why the adjustments are arbitrary, ad hoc, suspect, etc etc, why they did not just take two hours and looks at the easily available documentation on line.

And North Haven had tstm wind damage 8/10! All happens and hail HVN (not Weymouth)! Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service New York NY 845 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0619 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 N North Haven 41.40N 72.85W 08/11/2026 New Haven CT Law Enforcement Tree down across Washington Avenue in North Haven. Time estimated by radar.

This year’s contest is going to have an epic spread.

Always fun when you get the rare combination of downpours and thunder while still sunny out. Looks like we may get into that gell popping off around Bridgewater this way.

And @CoastalWx still misses the storms! Can he at least hear T to the S?

PDO changes afoot?

Thanks for posting a recap! I'm glad you had good luck seeing some nice meteors out there in PA. Here it was a complete bust with cloudy skies all throughout the overnight hours. The peak was last night, but as you said there's another chance tonight. There's a pretty good 3 day window -- the night before and night after are usually 60 to 70% of the peak night, so still pretty good. Unfortunately we're expecting a good amount of clouds here tonight, but we'll see. If it's just partly cloudy I'll go out there tonight. It was pretty cloudy here the night of the 11th into the 12th too, so very bad luck during the 3 day period here. I know the Perseid is the most popular shower of the year because it's during the warm summer, but the Geminid shower in December is actually the best shower of the year -- slightly bigger than the Perseid shower. So I'll deal with being out there in cold weather if we have clear skies, especially after having such bad luck last night.

Speaking of supposedly there could be another opportunity for one August 27-28 we will see would have to check with multiple sources it’s a lunar eclipse though we can pretend it’s a solar eclipse though .

I agree that they are beyond persuasion. Their belief system is a matter of identity and, in that aspect, essentially theological doctrine. But that's not the point. The issue is that climate change disinformation is rampant on social media. The news media still fails, as well, often not connecting events to climate change despite a growing body of attribution findings. Even in many cases where the connection is made, they are silent on the predominant cause: the burning of fossil fuels and the major fossil fuel companies' share of cumulative emissions. As a result, climate change disinformation has swamped credible science. That he science has proved remarkably accurate in projecting the warming, linking the warming to greenhouse gases/the burning of fossil fuels, and identifying potential outcomes in a warming has been drowned out in the deluge of disinformation. Neither basic physics, on which climate change understanding is based, nor the credibility of accurate scientific analysis, has proved an effective antidote to this disinformation. The outcome, as one paper put it, is a "crisis of truth" when it comes to climate change. The paper goes on to explain: Beneath this communication chaos lies a more unsettling truth: climate denial is not the absence of knowledge but the production of strategic ignorance. It is a tool of power, protecting entrenched economic interests and reinforcing the status quo. The deliberate distortion of facts, the manufacturing of uncertainty, and the cultivation of distrust are not accidental, they are calculated mechanisms designed to delay action and disarm the public. That brings us to this year. The Northern Hemisphere is all but certain to experience its hottest summer on record. July 2026 was the warmest month on record for the contiguous U.S. Globally, it was either tied with July 2024 (NOAA) or the warmest month on record (GISS). Nevertheless, the world remains largely paralyzed and unable to make meaningful progress toward a net zero emissions goal by 2050. Indeed, disruptions to shipments of oil through the Strait of Hormuz are viewed as a far graver problem than the rapidly warming climate is. Thus, I respectfully disagree with the notion that one should ignore climate change denial. The deniers aren't the intended audience, as their belief system is beyond reason, evidence, and ethics. The general reader, who encounters their disinformation, is the intended audience. IMO, the prophets and propagandsts of climate change denial and their deep flaws need to be confronted. William Happer: Has never published research on climate. John Clauser: A Nobel Prize in quantum entanglement has nothing to do with climate or climate change. Tony Heller: A Sandy Hook conspiracy theorist who regularly charges the NOAA with data "tampering." Chris Martz: A social media influencer/policy analyst with no climate research to his name and deep struggles with even elementary statistics e.g., he recently railed against "average mean temperature" (sic). What these four examples have in common is that none of them possess the knowledge, background, understanding, or experience to credibly debunk well-established scientific understanding, much less overturn well-established physical properties of greenhouse gases. Despite lofty claims about credentials, they are mere noisemakers. Nothing more. If left unopposed, they will continue to drown out the scientists and scientific understanding.

Winter 2025-26 was like winter 2014-15. Record breaking warmth out west, and cold in the East. It's almost impossible to have a cold CONUS winter like 2009-10 and 2010-11 anymore. When there is historic cold on one side of the country, you can almost bet the other side is having widespread record warmth. There is an increase of +10 temperature departure months starting in late 2011/early 2012.

I think it’s unlikely we’ll have that long of a period with below normal temps that allowed us to have that incredible run. I think a 2015-16 scenario would be on the table, but also 97-98. Very boom or bust winter seems likely.

Can you explain why a 2009-2010 type winter is on the table or unlikely again?

you're still alive?

Right I checked again and clouds were still there at 12 and 1 am oh that’s very interesting and good to know didn’t know that actually thanks that’s pretty neat glad you got to see a rare opportunity for meteors Yes I am in discord servers with people in Europe and uk and they were posting photos of the solar eclipse pretty neat stuff yep ikr and same the 2017 one feels like a decade ago almost can you believe it wow Dang another solar eclipse that’s pretty neat in 2027 but yeah unfortunately wish that sort of thing could stop I bet Spain got a lucky treat yesterday sort of like the one maybe in 2017 perhaps not sure the next one won’t be until 2045 I think but that’s in the Deep South Hope that the livestreams and photos online can help that neurotic feeling of the solar eclipse for 12 months were pretty amazing photos videos online from yesterday .

Yea that was my thought also. Sometimes an average when there are two distinct sub sets within the analogs is the least likely outcome! I get it that some feel pressured to make a definitive forecast but the truth is a good forecast would be to say “we have an elevated risk of a historic snowstorm this winter, it’s going to be wet, but it might end up too warm and in that case a snowless winter and it’s about 50/50 odds”. If people aren’t smart enough to digest some nuance and ambiguity oh well. Fake certainty does no one any good.

Yeah, the cold was definitely legitimate in the East. NYC for example had a 16 day stretch during effectively peak winter that ranked top 3 coldest, and I believe it was don who also noted that the same site had its coldest La Nina February in 90 years. Impressive metrics in a warming climate.

So the nw pacific does have leaking molten java from the floor bottom. I got laughed out of the room years ago when I suggested that warming is from the bottom up and not the top down due to puny mankind. The planet is dominated by oceans and ice and about 4 % developed and populated which is ridiculous to suggest cow farts and cars are doing that. The planet is a pot of water and those pots very rarely warm firm the top down

Thanks Paul still some Wildfire smoke upstairs going on. Smoke has been going on for days now. I would like to see the blue skies again instead of the milky whitish blue stuff.

Depends where though . NYC haven't seen a week straight of temps in the 20s in a long time until last winter.

i just thought the cold last winter was overhyped. It’s called winter it’s supposed to be cold.

CFS and ECMWF are both pretty cold for core winter. However several other season models are warmer. I suppose if one cranks up the El Nino signal it goes cool South. +PNA would be expected if the PDO gets lined up - still TBD. Then yes the -NAO can happen with forcing downrange and poleward of the Tropics. That's all review for many readers, but with noting. My thinking is that the modeling is not yet coded for such a warm Nino. I figure we flood the atmosphere with warmth across the board. Sadly if the South does get BN temps it might be cloudy crappy days with meh nights. Figure we'll get a few cold weeks, but most of summer I'm thinking blowtorch from El Nino Godzilla.