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Hey! A thread might be fun

Figured we could have a thread about this as Vortex69 mentioned. Some good winds, rain for some... maybe even some flakes. NH mountains could grab a few inches

Not that it is going to flip on a dime, but the last -AMO cycle coincided with the negative portion of the multidecadal NAO cycle in the 60s. I think we are more likely to see a modified version of that (CC) around and after the solar min early next decade. This season should be decidedly positive.

another boring beautiful day the california climo really does get old quick

In the nicest way this is the mid atl forum, so I’m sure south central PA has a different weather experience the past few months. For 90% of us we have not had such luck.

I heard the NWS might issue a Flying Trash Can Warning for tomorrow...

Yeah, we can see the overlapping influences between the El Niño, MJO, and -PDO heading into early June. The ridging showing up south of Alaska into Western Canada is the correlation with the El Nino and +AAM. The extension of the ridge further east across much of the CONUS is more -PDO and MJO 8-1 related for this time of year. So effectively a 500 mb composite in early June that reflects these influences. A coupled El Niño will vary in its sensible weather related to the other influences. Also the pattern in recent years of the 500 mb ridges becoming stronger and more expansive with weaker troughs during any given ENSO state.

At least on Monday we should get some cold pool small hailers

heh, what was the conversation about ? Oh, I see. yeah

Yeah, that is what my page shows as of the 27th for the daily value. As for how I did it, that's an important point to dwell on for any PDO calculation. It's dependent on the period of record, the exact domain, how much you correct the climate change signal, etc. All of these effect the EOF calculation that defines the weights that can then be used in the actual calculation. None of this is clearly standardized anywhere, which is why different groups get different values. I think that mine and WCS are better than NOAA who does not appear to have detrended the climate change signal properly.

Just to make sure you just weren't making up s***.

A rainy period is always 3 weeks away here now… Raleigh all but guaranteed to slip into level 2 water restrictions. Saw the lake was headed to 70% (currently 73%) and current restrictions went in at 85%. 60% is next level and that will come quicker as water usage increases in summer

As an aside ... to help (maybe) elucidate some of the scale of this anomaly, did you know that there is a teleconnector where eastern mid latitude N/A tends to trough/ridge at the same time as western Europe? It's just an aspect we covered in FAST II back in school. There are a few of these around the world. All they really are, are just arguments surrounding standard wave spacing in the L/W distribution - the stable #s tending to be the return state, is physically and also statistically (both) confirming these quasi-relationships. That said, ... a +3 SD or greater NW-W European ordeal, with its 95 to 100 F whopper pre June heatwave days over end is a circumstance that DEFINITELY is incongruous with the former inference. We should be hot too. But here's the thing ... this event is sub-index scaled. It's small. Too small really to be 'detected' numerically by the teleonnection inference. It's like reaching into an ice chest, balling up a snow ball, and throwing at us. It's moving S parabolically within a L/W axis, but it's anomalous relative to the L/W itself.

Exactly. A -2.6°F January departure against the warmest thirty-year normal on record is not some historic cold event. It does not even crack the top fifty coldest Januaries locally. In the old climate, that would have been a pretty ordinary, seasonably cold January. In today’s climate, people have become so used to warmth that a modestly below-normal month suddenly gets treated like 1977 reincarnated. That is the broader point they keep missing. Nobody is denying that cold shots happened, or that parts of the Great Lakes had a cool stretch. But it is pretty rich to accuse others of “ignoring the cold” while repeatedly ignoring the much larger and more persistent warm signal. From a historical perspective, it has been very warm year-to-date across much of the Midwest and Great Lakes, and even looking back over the last six months or so, since late November, warmth has easily won the battle. So yes, talk about the cold when it happens. That is weather. But pretending a ho-hum cold month or a two-to-three-day cool shot cancels out repeated warm pulses, record ridging, and months of above to well-above normal temperatures is not weather enthusiasm. It is selective accounting.

The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical tropical cyclone nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.

it'd be funner of this suddenly cold pool insertion aloft were to pass into the region at 18z instead of 06z...

Euro gusts show it . It’s wrong

Mason/Dixon line has been a pretty sharp cut-off for the have's vs have-nots on precip prior to the past week.

There was a big snowstorm Memorial Day Weekend in the Adirondacks May 24-26, 2013. https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/snow-new-england-new-york-weekend-20130527

49.0 for the low, looks (and feels) like a glorious late spring day here!

Nice way to end the ski season up there.

I look at all kinds of records, always have since Ive followed weather. My preference for cold doesnt stop my documentation of all weather (ive kept track of daily weather imby for 30 years now!). If you dont document every single weather event, anomaly, etc than you dont have a climate base to follow. But a few of those one-sided stat machines for warmth only pop in to stir the embers every now and then. Actually, I overlooked this during winter, but I just now realized Jan 15 - Feb 9th, the climatologically coldest time of the year, was 3rd coldest on record at Detroit this year. 3rd coldest of 153. I call that impressive, they call that "the west was warm".

Wow! Nobody is “ignoring cold.” The point is that you’re cherry-picking cold pockets while acting like warmth somehow doesn’t count unless it happens in your backyard. Look at the actual regional year-to-date high temperature rankings: much of the western part of the subforum is top 5 warmest, with multiple stations ranking between 2nd & 5th warmest. Even farther east, places like Detroit, Cleveland, Columbus and Toledo are in the top 10 to 20 warmest for average daily highs, and those rankings are likely to climb with the ongoing warmth. So yes, there were cold stretches. It is still weather. But on balance, warmth has very clearly won out across the region. Only the far north has been more mixed. Calling that an “echo chamber” does not change the data.

At least this storm is interesting. Better than 48 hours of drizzle and fog. Of course worse than a 75/55 and sunny Saturday.