All Activity

looks like a really good summer stretch and Saturday at least should be a decent beach day.

miss south stank up this way but got what i needed yesterday looks solid down there later

I mean yeah in that retrospect that could be a bit of a pattern change but if the ridge is just wobbling back and forth does that really count? The other aspect too is we've often seen this time of year (especially lately) where EPS gets a bit too aggressive with these changes. But yeah...these fropas will certainly mean business with a more refreshed airmass. But it is end of July now so we really aren't far off from beginning to see the subtle changes towards seasonal change. But I think its more likely than not the first half of August is quite warm/humid with a few breaks behind fropas. Have to watch that WAR...that will make or break probably.

83 / 72 sunny. Hot one - hottest day since Jul 8th - mid - upper 90s, a race to 100 vs clouds and storms/showers later this evening. Will be close. Weekend gets a reprieve from heat with onshore Saturday / inland hotter areas still to 90 on Satruday, Clouds / storms on Sunday keep it cooler. Mon - Wed hot again as stronger heat bubbles north ,Tue 850 MB temps >18c - >19c push the hot spots to the upper 90s / perhaps low 100s, still need to watch clouds / storms. Ridge backs west by the 31st with cooler period that sees a onshore flow develop before warm-hot returns around the 7/8th. 7/25 - 7/30 : Hot / Humid - Storms Fri PM / Sun - Peak heat Fri /Tue-Wed 7/31 - 8/7 : Cooler - overall near normal drier 8/8 : Overall warm - hot / Humid

Idk…the ridge retograding a bit west allowing troughs to dig into NE more frequently is a bit of a pattern change. I think we’ll definitely be AN over the next few weeks, but it doesn’t take much of a fropa (look at tomorrow) to bring dews down.

I dunno. The EPS synoptic evolution over the mid latitude continent is subtly cooler than the GEFs ... Heat's really sensitive to minor perturbations. Just the nature of atmospheric physics. Could go either way.

We might need another volcanic eruption like Pinatubo in 1992 to get a cool summer like that again. If it wasn't for Pinatubo we would have had a 5 year hot summer streak from 1991-1995. I remember in 1990 and 1991 we were talking about how historically hot it was in NYC, 23 out of 24 months above normal and record world heat at that time (average global temperature over 57 degrees for both years.)

That’s crazy. They keep popping wild highs during these 90+ days.

Despite whatever pretty blues people want to find, the regime and theme is going to continue well into August which is above average and humid. Any pretty blues aren't from a change in pattern, its just the product of an airmass advecting in behind a FROPA which is then replaced with the overall theme once the heights reset.

Got down to 72 here. It’s 79 at 8:50 and very humid

Oh yeah, Monday was gusty there. Be out on long lake tomorrow. Looking stellar Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

GEFs, GEPS and EPS means all with a three run warming trend Monday and Tuesday. GEFs in particular are sending mid upper 90s Tuesday by 18z. Wednesday is the hold out on a heat wave officially. Marginal due to front or convection... From this range, timing any summer front can be even more difficult at D5 as convection processing muddles what's happening in the physical processing of the models. Fair confidence in a pattern change - if perhaps temporarily - by mid week, though, so we're clearing the slate with a reprieve heat/dews for 2 or 3 days after Wednesday most likely. Beyond which skill pretty much does not exist. Fwiw, the GEFs signals heat return, while the Euro cluster does not. The operational GFS was the warmest model I saw for the Mon-Wed period, making low 90, upper 90s, and around 90.

Yeah when I looked last time I expected a smoking gun and saw nada.

Hoping for some good rains today and tomorrow

I was thinking this last week. I usually set the cutting height on my mower low in spring, and then when the hot/dry comes along I start cutting it higher. Typically in June. But this year I'm still stuck on the low cut. It think in a week or 2 it will slow down. At least at my location.

I was thinking of you when I drove through Naples on Monday. The waves were pretty big on Long Lake. I'm guessing 2'-3', though I'm not a boater so I don't have a great grasp on estimating wave height. I just know that it looked like it would have been a rough day out on the water.

Currently, the equivalent NOAA version of the PDO based on recent relationship to WCS is likely not far from -4. The record low monthly NOAA PDO through June of 2025 is ~-3.8.

Ya today looks meh for anything good.. everything I've looked at looks isolated

Summer rains are almost always hit and miss and coverage can vary. Some spots are browning, others are good.

Thank you. I will have to check it out once I get back from Maine next week.

Low of 70 with dew points on the rise.

The July -PDO will be one of the lowest we have seen as the record marine heatwave near Japan continues.

I'm also hoping we can pull out something in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. This is going to require getting everything timed perfectly which is not the case right now but still a few days to watch. Problem though is best dynamics are just behind the front and that's not something that usually changes over time.

That's where the CAMs seem to hit at strongest theta-e advection and moisture pooling. You'll also probably have some sort of sea-breeze boundary to aid in forcing

It seems like CAMs are leaning towards an RI to Cape cluster and that may be the only show.