All Activity

Just the topics of logical fallacies and cognitive biases *alone* is so much material. And we can all relate to them well b/c we are all susceptible and/or committed them at one time or another, and have experienced it first hand among the population and media.

Attractive headlines I have no issue w/ on a fundamental level, and they do have plenty of value, but as w/ anything, it can be abused, and that abuse line was crossed a long time ago IMHO. You wrote: "It is always best to ignore the hype in weather and sports... " I agree 100%, but it's very hard to b/c it is everywhere! Yes on social media platforms you can block words/phrases and ppl/sites, but it doesn't catch everything. Just casually watching TV or listening to radio, or ads on on sites like YouTube, it gets you. And over time, the drama, hype, and negative has worked their way into everything. You can't even have escapism watching a movie or show anymore w/o some kind of messaging or virtue signaling randomly inserted that has zero to do w/ the plot, but put in anyways.

It does not surprise me one bit! Never underestimate the drive to get more ratings, no matter how ridiculous or stupid it sounds! And it can be taken even further here, and it proves what I have said so many times in recent years. The ordinary is now turned into extraordinary! So this is a fcst for New Orleans. You know what the normal high temp is for June 27 (date of this article)? 91! And dew points are in the 70s almost all the time in summer, so afternoon heat indices are in the low 100s, and 107 like mentioned here happens a significant part of the time every summer. So how is this "dangerous?" This is normal climate for this area, and ppl are *used* to it. This idea that just b/c temps 90+ and the heat index 100+ somehow that means this summarily bad for humans is bunk. Ppl adapt well to their local climate no problem, have so for 1000s of years. "By Monday, temperatures will surge even higher as a strong heat bubble aloft moves northward over the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys, keeping the New Orleans area well above normal. Combined with higher humidity, Tuesday is shaping up to be a hot day." 2 F higher is a "surge?" And 3 deg above avg for a high temps is not "well above normal." Oh, the drama! I get sometimes, "well, that's just the way it is." I am not contesting that. Society changes/evolves. What I am contesting is the relentless fear-mongering and making mountains out of molehills. Crying wolf all the time is a bad thing, no? Putting ppl in a constant state of alert is unhealthy both physically and psychologically.

The tactic "scare w/ large numbers" is a biggie. How about "340 million people under high UV risk today!" Sounds ridiculous, but the trend to demonize *everything* no matter what is strong, so just you wait! And one could say, "well, UV is ionizing radiation and is a real risk!" and they would not be wrong. Very sleazy way to justify hype. Since ubiquitous well-known risk exists every day routinely, there is no practical value bringing it up most of the time other than for ratings and hype. We learn about normal risk from a young age. Risk is everywhere, and constantly bringing attention to it is counterproductive. Yes, alert the population as needed, and *not* for your own profit/business!

Yet so many ppl do not think twice taking the dog out for a walk when lightning is hitting not that far away and the thunder is very loud. As long as it is not raining, who cares?

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a heat advisory this small and specific.

Wow, this is a good one. Thanks for passing along. It may be a doctored image, but *nothing* would surprise me these days. And something like is done here? This would fall under a classic tactic from the book "How to Lie with Statistics" (Duff, 1954 - you can find it free to read on-line). It goes like this: On a graph, play w/ the y-axis. You can make things look as significant or insignificant as much as you want visually. Ppl are drawn to a flashy graphic first, and the labeling second (if at all). And this has been shown to work or influence in any venue/setting to get a particular message across. Over time, no matter how cheesy or insignificant it may be, for a hype angle or to simply grab attention more, nothing is off the table! I get the business model and why it is done (competition is intense/shorter attention spans), but it has become ridiculous. Micromanaging/slicing and dicing to the extreme, and I am not just making deductions/suppositions from what I see presented. I know a number of of OCMs, and some have told me this is how it really is. Many OCMs do not want to do such things b/c they want to keep it real and based, but they are told to do this by the news directors or consultants, and have no choice. And the book I mentioned above, you see that the saying, "there are lies, damn lies, and STATISTICS!" is not just some casual idiom!

Looks like a snooze fest through late July. Glad we had our good rains in the first week of the month.

That 29" at CAR was its biggest 24 hr snowstorm by far up to that time. Attached is a classic weenie snowfall map from Storm Data for this storm!

What is said above I agree 100%. Rating it? It looks about "average" for a svr wx event we typically see this time of year. Just b/c it is "average," certainty does not mean it won't be good, and some areas will get crushed, esp. w/ rain as PWATs are over 2" and K-indices 34+. Storms should largely move orderly W-E 20-25 mph. Short bow segments and clusters w/ marginal/brief supercell structures are likely. Tornado threat is low since winds are rather light 850 and below. However 0-3 km CAPE is excellent so an isolated QLCS spin-up is possible. On the large-scale, the flow aloft today was weakly anticyclonic, but that switches to more solid cyclonic Thu. Just noting that b/c even in absence of a distinct s/w trof, anticyclonic vs. cyclonic flow makes a sig difference for convective initiation and maintenance. No capping issues Thu due to cyclonic flow! HRRR gives the Delmarva the most QPF. This does not surprise me. I have noticed anecdotally, storms often do very well here. Probably due to more boundaries and slightly higher DPs since you have both the Bay breezes and sea breezes interacting here. Look like general showers/tstms around Fri-Sat and maybe Sun, then a break Mon-Tue as we have a stable wedge of high pressure in the region (looks like cold air damning in the summer - see GFS valid 12z Tue below) Then more interesting after that w/ NW flow svr wx events possible.

Another light show tonight:

Maybe some severe around the 18th or 19th, otherwise SNE looks

And let me just add lol. I'm not trying to be on some high horse denouncing people--mets or hobbyists--who try to be a real value add to the public discourse. I think the information sharing landscape has allowed for different perspectives to break through and advance the science by challenging our thinking on what's possible and why in wx. I'm biased, but I think many chasers add value by being in the dangerous places and collecting data and video that aids in our understanding of extreme wx and the issuance of warnings. But as we know...many are just trying to gain money and clout. God bless 'em, it's America, but the goal should always be building trust with the public and helping people understand science/context/impact.

I think we probably have chances for some pretty rainy days this month. I don't buy anything models sell beyond 4 or 5 days this time of year. Just need some random disturbance to tap into a volatile atmosphere to get something going.

Says who? They extended Basallo...and Adley is not gonna completely break the bank. And the thing with the Basallo deal...they basically bought out the arb years and added on a couple. It was an investment but not one that would preclude them from signing Adley as well. And Adley has value with a pitching staff that Basallo doesn't. There is room for both--and this ownership group seems to want to spend more. Holliday is unproven...so why in the world would you sell him right now? You don't know what you have in him yet. He is your 1:1--no way you sell him at age 22. Gunnar is the only one where you may have a case. But here's the thing: To get Yankee or Dodger money he is gonna have to play a lot better. There will be no bidding war right now. And as far as selling him this year... do we really get max value in prospects? Nah. Now if he plays like an MVP next year, and we still suck, then maybe you do it then.

I certainly agree that the changes we're seeing in how information gets communicated is starting to have a cumulative effect, and while I think most probably still understand what's over the top, when you have so much bad, misinterpreted, misleading information combined with a growing reliance on short form video rather than reading and critical thinking, we're going the wrong way. I think you can see it in how wildly popular some of the YouTubers in particular have become and how some elements of MSM seem to be trying to adopt similar styles even if it isn't going full on hype in the way we see online. I think that's a larger conversation though about how media has become less of a public trust focused on truth and analysis and more a place for entertainment and opinion that generates engagement and profit. There's always been an aspect of "if it bleeds it leads" but sometimes you watch the nightly news for example and they're leading off talking about a severe weather outbreak which, while bad, might completely leave out the context that severe weather outbreaks have happened for millennia because the atmosphere at its very core seeks balance. Pick your wx topic. It may be newsworthy in its own right because people are being impacted, but if you're leaving out all of the context, it does the general public a disservice. Another great example--and my hobbyhorse since I care about it more than any other type of wx--is tropical. You can bank on every active year truly outrageous bad analysis and hype. Whether it's people sharing 10 day operational model doom runs under the guise of "making sure people are prepared", or wanting to be the first to call for RI of a tropical wave because they rip and read a HAFS run before a LLC has even been identified, or probably the worst...taking a string of active seasons and/or a high end hurricane and declaring that the Atlantic is in a new era of hyperactivity. That definitely has a negative impact IMO on how the public views and responds to emergency managers who often times are community members just trying to do their best. I worry that the current information sharing landscape and the decline in reading and critical thinking is going to prove disastrous long term, not just in the wx space.

I'd like to see that. It'd be cool if you could get it and put up a link. I tried to find a video of the radar loops from the 4th and 5th to post here, but I was unsuccessful.However, I did find over an hour of live, storm coverage from CBS 21 that includes some good aerial footage of the storm.

Greenfield had under .50" yesterday so not awesome but at least it was something for the fruit trees. We dry moving forward. Good for mosquito control I suppose.

Good info! Thanks. This kind of discussion is great b/c it puts forth different views/angles that we all can take in, and then make adjustments and see things better. It is all too easy for one to isolate themselves in their own mindset/attitude, and forget there is always more too it or another way of looking at it! Perhaps "cowering" was not the best term choice, at least not as to what actually happens when sig wx occurs, However, the message being put forth, from the individual to big media, is on the level that "cowering" does fit IMHO. This is biggest tissue I have -- how wx is handled/presented by so many in recent decades. That has devolved significantly, and has real physical and physiological impacts. I agree that more ppl than not get it and do to succumb or fall prey to excessive hype, but unfortunately the vocal minority that do get *most* of the attention, and even one person crying foul in some cases, ends up going viral or officials/authorities/politicians overreacting, and it ends up being a much bigger deal that it actually should be, and this in turn affects mindsets, zeitgeist, and policy. And also, you get those in charge using wx events for ulterior and questionable motives at times. And due to excessive hype, it promotes distrust and apathy in the public, and that can and does have consequences that are non-trivial. Social media is biased w/ hype and over the top b/c it get clicks/likes and drives the algorithms, so individuals not only benefit, but also the platforms do, and you get this feedback loop, and the platform quality goes down. I have no problem w/ hype when it is warranted, meaning when something truly big is fcst that will have impacts way above the norm and/or is quite rare, like a Sandy or the Oct 2011 snowstorm, going full throttle is a good thing. But crying wolf for virtually *every* wx event is ridiculous and counterproductive. What WxWiz said about local hype in CT for the most recent rain event is a good example. Yes, in a vacuum, 4-8" of rain fcst is a concern, but as discussed, there are other factors to consider. esp. when talking about *impact* to society. The MSM and hype-masters often conflate an event intensity and impact. The two are not always direct correlated! And we have the tech, skill, and knowledge now to quite easily quantify and scale wx events very good, but not all for various reasons are taking advantage of it! For instance, you will still here some ppl think/say (anywhere - the public to officials/authorities) -- "well, you never know w/ the wx!" That is a largely an out-of-date and weasel excuse these days.

Adley is likely going elsewhere. Maybe this season if they are smart. His contract is up next year and they invested big money in Basallo. Come on dude. Holliday is unproven. Gunnar has been bad this season but Boras is his agent. He is gone. Dodger or Yankee guaranteed.

maybe northeastern backyards will get a ku

This Vegas heat is getting aggressive. Approaching 110. I’ve been getting my sunny fix…and now starting to crave a couple of gray and cooler days lol.

You know why I don't believe it's needed? Because 3-4 more years of losing is the nuclear option--and you don't have to do that to turn this around. You need to fire Elias/Sig and give this org a new philosophy. Talent-wise, It is not broken beyond repair like it was in 2018. Why blow it up and go through that when you have another option to turn it around sooner? Holliday will be here. Gunnar is a maybe (his price got lower this year that's for sure). Adley isn't going anywhere, imo. We had a fire sale last year, did we not? Only thing to sell this year is Ward and maybe Cowser, Kittredge? Definitely not getting rid of Bradish or Baz. Rogers perhaps...but it's really not a lot worth selling.

Yeah, historical composite is somewhat limited. There were plenty of +EPO/+WPO La Nina's in the 1895-1948 dataset.