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Way too early for exact tracks. The EPS spread is all over the place as you would expect this far out. Some tracks closer to the SE and others OTS. But as long as there is high pressure to the north, any tropical system underneath will maintain a cooler onshore flow here.

We have a kakistocracy ( - government by the least qualified or most unprincipled citizens ) ... for a government made possible by voters having dimmed intellect, and corrupted and/or poorly formed morality. That parenthetic is the formal definition of kakistocracy - give me a better description for this administration. You can't. That's what the hell why. Just sayn'

Hurricane Bob 1991 redux..... (same time of the month too)

Is this the year after a long overdue hurricane drought for the mid Atlantic ????

absolutely incredible late August heat and for once NYC beat EWR lol

The US Government is "re-evaluating" past documents to "reflect reality" on climate change. To me this is them putting in rigged data, to support the coal, and oil industries. This document is being re-done by someone from the fossil fuel industry. I don't want to get too political here, but what the hell?

Dew up to 66. Feeling swampy . One morning that got into upper 50’s. Rest 60 or higher. As meh a mild down as they get for Augdewst . Deep deep deep summer begins tomorrow and who knows when it ends . I’ll guess Oct

our Augusts have become much wetter, people talk about which months are warming the quickest (it's in the winter), but I'd surmise that August is the month that is becoming more wet at a faster rate than any other month.

Hey neighbor, I used to photograph seagulls in the early days just to get some practice on BIF (birds in flight), but now I just consider them a nuisance. We have some Great Blue Herons here, have you seen them? Snowy Egrets? Cooper's Hawks? Red Tailed Hawks? Have you seen our parrots?

I'm okay with a tropical entity cruising up the coast and staying a little offshore if it can bring us really nice Pre. Like 3-4" of rain from a Pre would be great.

It looks like a Hugo type pattern, not a pattern for a landfall up here.

it's actually too strong for heat for us.

2001: In New York, the temperature reached a record 103 degrees for the date while in neighboring Newark, N.J., it topped 105 degrees, the National Weather Service said. The old record in both cities was 100, set in 1949. Electricity demand was so high that lights flickered in New York when the metropolitan area suffered scattered outages. New York Gov. George Pataki ordered parking and admission fees waived at parks statewide. In New York City, municipal pools stayed open until 8 p.m. Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani called on supervisors of city employees to use common sense in delegating responsibilities, saying that “strenuous work is not suggested at this time, unless it’s an absolute emergency.” In Boston, as temperatures approached a record 99, residents and tourists flocked to malls, museums, movie theaters or any place with air-conditioning. 2002: Washington, DC hits 98° and recorded their 8th consecutive day of 95 °F or higher, the longest such streak in recorded history at this time. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) Highs: EWR: 105 (2001) NYC: 103 (2001) LGA: 104 (2001) JFK: 98 (2001) Incredible extreme heat around this date in both 2001 and 2002!! 1918: One of the worst hot spells on record occurred in Washington, DC with an average high 99.6°F from 5th to 9th, 106° on 6th. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) The heat in 1918 in this time period was not only extreme it was widespread!! 1976: Hurricane Belle formed just to the northwest of the Bahamas on the 6th, rapidly intensified to a Category 3 southeast of North Carolina. Hurricane Belle then began to weaken, moving into western Long Island near Jones Beach as a minimal hurricane during the evening on this date. Hurricane warnings were extended to the coastal sections of New Jersey, New York, Connecticut and Rhode Island where tides as high as 12 to 15 feet were expected. New York City measured a gust to 56 mph. Philadelphia, PA reported 0.51 inches of rain on the 8th, with an additional 1.17 inches on this date. The tide reached 8.8 feet above mean lower low water at Atlantic City, NJ, tying the level reached during the great coastal storm of 3/6/1962, and again reached during the "Perfect Storm" of 10/31/1991. Severe coastal flooding begins at 8.7 feet. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) The anniversary of Hurricane Belle!!

Anything that high up will likely be a recurve

Rain and dews for Christmas day.

I'd much rather see the Perseid meteor shower, the rain can wait until after the 14th.

not as bad as it once looked Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Light and variable wind. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 63. Light southwest wind. Monday Sunny, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 65. Light southwest wind. Tuesday Sunny and hot, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 65. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Southwest wind 3 to 8 mph. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. West wind 3 to 5 mph. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. West wind 3 to 7 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. East wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south in the afternoon.

I hate onshore flow and the high humidity that comes from it. How did we get the big heat at the end of August in 1948?? It's absolutely amazing that Central Park had three straight days over 100 at the end of August in 1948 and JFK had two straight!! That extreme heat was close to the beginning of met fall!!

Like clockwork the first week of August the crop dusters invade. They were extra heavy this year. I saw as many as 6 flying around from my back porch one morning. Same time every year, free airshow lol.

This morning, the temperature fell to 64° in Central Park. That was the fourth consecutive day with a low of 64°. The last time that happened during the first ten days of August was August 5-8, 1997. August 1-9 has had a mean low temperature of 64.8°. That is the coolest average low during that period since 1992 when the mean low was 64.0°. Overall, the August 1-9 mean temperature of 73.4° is the coolest since 1992 when the mean temperature was 73.3°. It will turn warmer tomorrow. The region will likely experience a return of 90° or above heat next week. Temperatures could top out in the middle or perhaps even upper 90s in the hot spots when the heat peaks during the Tuesday through Thursday period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was +0.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.305 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.4° (0.3° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I could see backing off of the ACE correlations that are applicable during La Niña, but I would certainly be skewing most aspects of a seasonal outlook towards cool ENSO.

Hi SE friends. I’m in OBX this next week for my first ever visit. 76 with a lovely breeze right now.

Ha ha my interior is clear coat maple and I was telling my wife that the last time we were there...you only get one chance to hang something on the wall, better get the location right.

Kind of kidding, but I think @Maestrobjwa might be an Orioles bot.

Deep summer way up into Canada.