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My citrus trees have been pretty tolerant of the 30’s at night, But I was taking them in and back out on sub freezing nights but I think there going to remain indoors from here on out with temps now reaching the 50’s it’s staying in the 60-70F range in the Green House, My Lemon and one orange tree is blooming big time, I have 2-Washington Navels, 1-Myer Lemon and 1-Key Lime tree.

The IOD will almost certainly still rebound sharply by winter as it did in those other 3 cases since 2010 as we’ve been in a +IOD regime in recent years and IOD almost always bottoms by this time of year:

debating about going another 6 months before changing the hot tub water. I usually change it every 6 months. We don't use a whole lot over the summer and it's pretty clean right now, but not sure it's worth taxing the well for 250gal of water. We have a deep 500' well, so theoretically about 700gal static, but who knows what the actual level is right now. 1st world problems.

Quite the washout this week. I might be able to winterize the sprinkler system. It’s that good, slow, soaking rain too.

he really covers his you know what with those wide range snowfall amounts ............

Especially with such a compact system. Look how small the hurricane force winds area is! If it managed to get just a little more west before it turns it would be hugely helpful for Jamaica

So a near normal winter

I believe his analog mix provides further illustration of the subjective nature of choosing analogs. There is no one "right way" to do so. He places a lot of weight on the QBO. The selection of 2014-15 suggests that the QBO outweighed other variables such as ENSO. Others use different considerations. Can analogs be constructed objectively with consistently reasonable performance? I don't know. That's part of the reason I am trying an ENSO-Teleconnections approach based on RMSE and will weigh its outcome against my own winter thoughts (to be posted mid-November). If there is promise, I'll re-run the exercise for spring and summer.

Ten of October's first eleven days were sunny but now we're paying. Since then, the drizzly grays have taken over. 10/13-16, 4 cloudy days, 0.11" total RA. Weekend and today, 3 more and only 0.08". Almost every autumn features that kind of wx, but I'll be glad when something else moves in. Month precip is 2.46", which is 3" BN for October, and the Thurs-Fri event isn't going to make up the difference.

Steve D winter forecast https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-december-2025-through-february-2026/

Steve D winter forecast https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-december-2025-through-february-2026/

Steve D winter forecast https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-december-2025-through-february-2026/

Almost looks like a giant supercell you'd see in Oklahoma

Another factor is that it really isn't moving. A storm's movement speed adds to it's max wind speed. If nothing changes at all the wind speed will come up a bit once it gets moving north.

Such a clear day. Saw the city skyline coming north from Robert Moses. Rare that happens.

If I were a farmer in the 1800s, looking at sensible weather lately, I would go for a colder Winter. In August it got cool.. I had something like 15/16 days where it didn't get out of the 70s in August, and it's stayed relatively cool through September, October, and it looks like early November. In the last 15-20 years, we have had a lot of very above average Fall's. At the least, I think a blowtorch winter is off the table. The pattern would need to completely change around for that -- we have a little more tendency for -EPO right now.

1995-2005 did average ~160. But outside of those years, 10 seasons (1991-4, 2006-7, 2009, and 2013-5) were <80. If I were classifying what’s hyperactive, I’d add some years that were <175 during a much lower avg recorded ACE era such as 1886’s 166, 1899’s 151, 1906’s 162, 1916’s 144, 1932’s 170, and 1955’s 158. Even 1880’s 131 should be considered imho as it was way higher than all preceding years other than 1878 back to 1851.

Yup, I jumped the gun. We picked up 1.83" so far. MUCH needed!

Wait, the 1991-2020 average is only 122? I thought it would be somewhere around 140, considering how active 1995-2005 was. I guess I can lower the baseline for a hyperactive season to 175. That will give us 13: 1 2005 247.65 2 1933 235.785 3 1893 231.0738 4 1995 227.5513 5 1950 227.1413 6 2004 226.94 7 1926 225.7788 8 2017 224.8775 9 1961 196.95 10 1998 181.8838 11 2020 180.3725 12 1955 178.585 13 1999 177

Also, Melissa is not a large hurricane but rather a small and compact hurricane. The eye is also small too, and the compact system and pinhole eye means the area of maximized winds is small. It’s possible recon missed the max in the NE quad.

Takes time to catch up

42 coldest yet

it was cold enough to wear winter gloves my hands were freezing..

should not the winds be stronger with such a low pressure reading?