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Euro was bad on that Wednesday event prior to the big one. Reggie nailed it and Nam was close. Mesos are having a good winter . We’ll see

Sorry to hear that Voyager but man I am so far from being able to relate to this post. The thought of looking out my window in early February and being depressed because my yard is white is so foreign to me I don’t even know where to begin haha. But to each their own. Hang in there pal.

GFS = Glue Factory System? But kidding aside I think we all know that’s a pipedream in Feb…although you can’t rule out a semi warm day in there.

Well more than Aifs

that was my last day above freezing as well, wonder how unusual it is for this much further south, got to be close to a record if not at least top 5... highest temp here in the last 30 days was 43.2 on 1/11... crazy impressive sustained cold. too bad it's been dry for most of it.

Winter is saved!

Please no

Chance at some sleet/freezing rain later especially north of the city but maybe north shore as well.

If it ain’t going to snow we might as well torch. I’m done freezing my ass off walking to class.

Idk, all but a handful of Eps members has the slp in a decent location. In fact, just a few that are way ots skew the mean. We'll see.

Upgraded CMC is slightly warmer but it's an all snow event NW of I95

Technically this is an Archaumbault event with the NAO change. It argues for a stronger/farther N solution vs the Ai models. Euro Ai gives me the most pause for concern of course, but we’re still at range where we could maybe see some significant changes There’s also a world where the Ukie/cmc solutions are possible, similar 6z euro track but with the initial wave tracking farther N 00z Ukie was a MECS for interior to SNE 00z cmc parallel was like the Ukie but also got Philly in the game. Lots to parse. The pieces are there. We have 50/50, but the ULL helping reinforce the cold is a bowling ball and models are all over the place with it. Strong shortwave coming out of the pac, and finally x-factor to me is any northern stream piece that potentially tries to phase in last second. 6z eps comparison vs 00z, you can see that phase trying to happen with the energy over the lakes

A few more frames would suggest the 6z ICON won’t miss south if extrapolated

@WinterWolfThoughts? How does this fit the overall tenor of the season? Do we know?

Wow

Good now let me change my screen name dangit

The models were showing rain yesterday. I’d wait until they stabilize some before drawing conclusions rather than flip flopping with every run.

Not much to hate about that until someone chimes in with all of that is from one monster hit and 49 misses

Euro is a coating for you, will be interesting.. NAM/RGEM blend should get you plowable other models not so hot

Marginal setup

I don't care about being back i can't wait for tonight's thrilling installment of the Chuck and psu podcast

It looks like a Cape scraper to me. Cape Canaveral.

Eps. More to come after this too.

10% of members with a plowable snow wouldn't call that a lot

Looks like a few good hits, but I wouldn’t call that “lots”