All Activity

Gfs is complete garbage now. I only look at Euro/Euro AI

72

The first half of November will definitely be warmer than avg. November (at least here) is the most rapidly changing month of the entire year from first day to last. So with the natural transition from Fall to winter alone, I would expect the second half to be solidly colder than the first, but in the end, highly confident anyone in the north finishes the month on the cool side of normal is an ill-advised call.

Ok

Bamwx likes a cool November

You predict that every year.

Yet, the Euro-AIFS shows decent snow in southern Canada the 1st 15 days of November. I'd show further north, but Pivotal doesn't offer that map. Even some in the NE US.

What weather enthusiast wouldnt marvel about how warm it is in Phoenix when theres a blizzard in his own backyard?

I have a few pretty tall beeches out back, some are still hanging on (the small ones are toast). had a good -sized one next to the house that finally gave in this year.

hate to say it but ok with a warm early Nov. Lets get some flurries the week of Thanksgiving and sounds like a great November. We need rain. That is the biggest issue.

Looks like warmest CONUS November, December ever

smoke 'em if you got 'em?

With a juiced jet, I like the chances of some good storms in the region. Where they will hit, who knows, stay tuned. In fact, a family friend always asks my prediction for winter. She just asked today. This was my response: There is a very strong El Nino this winter. So unfortunately a mild winter is expected. The warmest month will likely be December and coldest February. This does not mean no cold/snow/ice, just less than usual. I would expect lots of periods of bare ground unlike last winter which was white, but also a heightened threat for a very strong winter storm or two.

Very strong signal for a warm November IMO

Ive noticed a trend the last few years in the op GFS/GEM where summer heat and winter cold numbers are ridiculous in fantasy range.

It seems today is the day that all the leaves decided it was time to give up.

Where are you living now? Definitely disagree with summer extending 2 months - thats simply not true. However, average temps have risen more in spring/fall. In the southern Great Lakes, we still get accumulating snow in April, frosts/freezes/snow into May, snow in October, and sometimes cold and multiple snows in November. Every year is different of course, but the growing season is not based on an "average" temperature. Spring in particular is often a very dreary season in these parts, so an increase in temps would be beneficial to many a normie, though you will still get the cold/snow late. Chopping a few days off the first/last dates for snow/freezes really doesnt mean much in the grand scheme of things. Winter is cold, summer is hot...transition seasons are a massive wildcard. Detroit first/last freeze *** first/last measurable snow Last 30 years (1997-2026): October 27 – April 21 *** November 20 – April 5 POR (1874-2026): October 22 – April 24 *** November 16 – April 8 Chicago first/last freeze *** first/last measurable snow Last 30 years (1997-2026): October 24 – April 20 *** November 20 – April 2 POR (1872-2026): October 25 – April 18 *** November 17 – April 2

Mowvember looking solid. Hopefully right through Bakesgiving.

Cosgrove’s just released Nov forecast disagrees just slightly : I think that CWG will verify much more closely based on the Euro Weeklies.

Well we clear the very end of October with no strong coastal in time frame and let’s now hope we can do same 11/25-11/30 for favorable analog trend and current mildness also bodes well historically